第三季度《世界制造业生产报告》（英文）

World ManufacturingProductionStatistics for Quarter III 2020Manufacturing bounces back afterCOVID-19 drop, but outlook uncertainStatistics for Quarter III 2020World manufacturing growth in Quarter III 2020World manufacturing production alreadyregistered an overall slowdown in 2019, whichhas been further exacerbated by the economiccrisis triggered by COVID-19. In the first halfof 2020, the economic slump was severe but ex-pected given the lockdowns imposed around theworld to contain the virus. In the third quar-ter of 2020, most economies showed signs of re-covery, albeit with an unclear future, as vari-ous industrialized countries were experiencing asecond wave of coronavirus from October 2020onwards.In the third quarter of 2020, global ma-nufacturing output declined by 1.1 per cent ina year-over-year comparison due to COVID-19containment measures, following a significantdrop of 11.1 per cent in the second quarter of2020.Industrialized economies recorded a reduc-tion in manufacturing production of 5.9 per centin the third quarter of 2020, after a contractionof 16.3 per cent in the previous quarter.China, the world’s largest manufacturer,was hit hard by the pandemic in the first quarterof 2020, but the country’s manufacturing sectorhas been able to bounce back. According to sea-sonally adjusted index numbers, China’s manu-facturing output increased by 8.2 per cent in ayear-over-year comparison in the third quarterof 2020, following a growth rate of 3.2 per centin the second quarter.GGGGGG−25−20−15−10−50510QII 2019QIII 2019QIV 2019QI 2020QII 2020QIII 2020GDev. and EIE (excl. China) China Industrialized economies World Figure 1: Growth of world manufacturing output,percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous yearManufacturing production of developingand emerging industrial economies1 (excludingChina) registered a decline of 3.7 per cent and22.0 per cent in output in the third and the se-cond quarters of 2020, respectively.1Referred to in the rest of the report as ”Dev. and EIE”.UNIDO Statistics2Statistics for Quarter III 2020−15−10−5051015QI 2006QI 2007QI 2008QI 2009QI 2010QI 2011QI 2012QI 2013QI 2014QI 2015QI 2016QI 2017QI 2018QI 2019QI 2020Figure 2: Growth of world manufacturing output in percentage change compared to the same quarter of the previous yearThe current economic downturn is the firstof such magnitude since the financial crisis of2008/2009 (Figure 2). During that crisis, con-siderable reductions in production were recordedfor four consecutive quarters, but exceptionallyhigh increases in production were reported insubsequent quarters.It remains to be seenwhether the current economic crisis will follow asimilar recovery path.The most recent figures reflect the globalshock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic andthe incipient recovery. The challenges and un-certainties that dominated previous quarters,such as trade protectionist measures as well asuncertainty around Brexit, have clearly movedto the background.COVID-19 is still