生产力研究的经验教训：将其应用于日本的战略（英）

LESSONS FROM PRODUCTIVITY RESEARCHAPPLYING THESE TO A STRATEGY FOR JAPANMartin Neil Baily, Senior Fellow Emeritus, The Brookings InstitutionFEBRUARY 2023ABSTRACTThis study presents selected lessons learned from productivity research. It examines the extent to which the key empirical questions about productivity have been answered. While the productivity growth residual (TFP) is still somewhat puzzling, soft innovations and new business models are seen as important contributors. Aggregate and industry growth data are reviewed and show how a few industries contribute a lot to overall growth; notable is the large contribution of high-tech manufacturing to U.S. TFP growth. Similar findings also hold for Ja-pan. There is an extended summary of the lessons learned from cross-country comparisons of the levels of productivity in different industries using business economics information. High competitive intensity is positive for productivity, while regulations and trade restrictions are negative. The productivity lessons are applied to develop a strategy to improve productivity in Japan, stressing catch-up in protected industries, improving the education system, and the need to restore Japan’s strength in high-tech.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSGenerous support for this research has been provided by the Japan Productivity Center. I would like to thank James Kunhardt and Rayan Sud for great research assistance. Helpful comments have been received from the Japan Productivity Center staff and Barry Bosworth.DISCLOSURESThe Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports, published online. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.3LESSONS FROM PRODUCTIVITY RESEARCHI. IntroductionProductivity is a measure of the amount of output pro-duced by a given level of inputs. The higher the level of productivity, the greater is the amount of goods and services that can be produced by an economy’s work-ers, capital, and natural resources. Productivity growth over many decades has transformed America, Europe, and Japan into wealthy countries. The progress made since the start of the industrial revolution has been a miracle, allowing most people in these countries to live comfortably and have a range of economic opportuni-ties. Rising productivity is not the only factor, but it is the most important factor, improving living standards and lifting people out of poverty.The world economy is changing. Is productivity still as important? There is well-justified concern about global warming and the need to reduce emissions. Further, economy-wide productivity increases have not contrib-uted proportionately to workers’ wages, so that there is dissatisfaction about economic performance. This is a particular problem in the United States, where autom