BIS-人工智能与关系型信贷

BIS Working Papers No 1244 Artificial intelligence and relationship lending by Leonardo Gambacorta, Fabiana Sabatini and Stefano Schiaffi Monetary and Economic Department February 2025 JEL classification: G01, G21, E50. Keywords: Artificial intelligence; machine learning; credit supply; relationship lending. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) 1 Artificial intelligence and relationship lending Leonardo Gambacorta, Fabiana Sabatini and Stefano Schiaffi∗ Abstract We study the interaction between banks’ adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in credit scoring and relationship lending. Using a unique dataset on Italian banks’ investments in AI for the purpose of integrating their credit scoring techniques, matched with credit register data from one year before and one year after the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis, we find that AI investments help banks mitigate the typical countercyclical effects of relationship lending on firms’ credit supply, as well as on their investment and employment decisions. Keywords: artificial intelligence; machine learning; credit supply; relationship lending. JEL codes: G01, G21, E50. ∗ Leonardo Gambacorta (leonardo.gambacorta@bis.org ) is at the Bank for International Settlements and affiliated with CEPR, Fabiana Sabatini (fabiana.sabatini@bancaditalia.it) and Stefano Schiaffi (stefano.schiaffi@bancaditalia.it) are at the Bank of Italy, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Directorate. We would like to thank Andreas Barth, Tania Babina, Nicola Branzoli, Margherita Bottero, Giuseppe Ferrero, Giacomo Gaggero, Itay Goldstein, Simone Lenzu, Stefano Neri, Matthew Plosser, Edoardo Rainone, Ilaria Supino, Koji Takahashi, Andrea Tiseno for useful comments and suggestions, as well as participants to the AI in Finance Conference, Columbia Business School, 10-11 June 2024, to the 2024 Annual Conference of the International Association of Applied Econometrics, Thessaloniki 25-27 June 2024, to the 2024 annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), Frankfurt am Main, 28-30 September 2024 and to the 6th conference on “New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets”, Rome, 3 December 2024. The views expressed here are those of the authors only, and not necessarily those of the Bank of Italy or the Bank for International Settlements. 2 1. Introduction The global financial crisis