2024年报-2025Q1业绩预告点评：弹性体、改性塑料双轮驱动，业绩稳健

1 指标2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E营业收入（百万元）4,5445,3016,0877,0377,918增速（%）0.41%16.65%14.82%15.62%12.51%归母净利润（百万元）140141194252355增速（%）-8.09%0.67%37.35%30.43%40.71%每股收益（元）0.310.310.430.550.78市盈率（倍）47.6147.3034.4326.4018.76iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD -200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0102030405060201920202021202220232024营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收同比增速（右轴）净利同比增速（右轴）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%201920202021202220232024毛利率净利率主要产品设计产能在建产能建设情况热塑性弹性体4万吨5万吨（东厂区新材料），10万吨TPU+6万吨多元醇（二期）东厂区新材料5万吨项目建设阶段，HNBR公用工程3000吨（已建成1000吨），二期项目建设中改性塑料50万吨-山东道恩高分子材料西南总部基地项目（一期），2024年2月达到预定可使用状态色母粒2.7万吨--生物可降解PBAT6万吨（一期）共聚酯改造项目生物可降解PBAT项目终止建设，转向1万吨/年特种共聚酯项目改造2024Q42024Q32024Q22024Q12023Q42023Q32023Q22023Q1营业收入(百万元)15321447111612071180112511871052营业成本(百万元)13261285988107310029951074934销售费用率1.2%0.9%0.9%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.0%0.9%管理费用率2.6%2.3%2.7%2.0%3.0%2.4%2.0%1.5%财务费用率1.0%1.1%0.6%0.8%0.5%1.2%0.8%0.8%研发费用率6.2%4.7%4.3%4.1%5.1%3.6%3.2%4.4%资产减值损失(百万元)9.400.000.00-0.92 8.630.000.23-0.23 利润总额(百万元)4337354459363341所得税费用(百万元)11158105归母净利润（百万元）4331323542333135扣非归母净利（百万元）3427272935282429EPS（元）0.100.070.070.080.090.070.070.08毛利率13.4%11.1%11.5%11.0%15.1%11.5%9.5%11.2%期间费用率11.0%9.0%8.4%8.0%9.8%8.4%7.0%7.7%所得税率1.6%3.0%1.8%12.1%13.6%3.0%1.0%11.4%净利润率2.8%2.2%2.8%2.9%3.6%2.9%2.6%3.3%iFinD iFinD 产品分类20212022202320242025E2026E2027E销量（吨）274187322103321760388050454018522121589997单价（万元/吨）1.21.11.01.00.90.90.9单位成本（万元/吨）1.01.00.90.90.80.80.8单位毛利（万元/吨）0.10.10.10.10.10.10.1销量（吨）243992911737133471586130691959119547单价（万元/吨）1.81.91.71.61.61.51.5单位成本（万元/吨）1.81.91.71.61.61.51.5单位毛利（万元/吨）0.40.30.40.30.30.30.3销量（吨）22374207922260225950298433282734468单价（万元/吨）1.10.90.91.01.01.01.0单位成本（万元/吨）0.50.80.80.80.80.80.8单位毛利（万元/吨）0.60.10.10.10.10.10.1改性塑料色母粒热塑性弹性体资产负债表利润表会计年度2022202320242025E2026E2027E会计年度2022202320242025E2026E2027E货币资金371.97481.49502.37608.65703.74791.75营业收入4525.704544.075300.766086.517037.387917.55应收票据及账款1713.221764.812499.642668.062911.352993.48营业成本4083.774004.354672.965326.336113.076824.56预付账款202.4698.88145.41183.43144.60151.84税金及附加16.8419.1416.0618.2621.1123.75其他应收款3.637.966.8511.0110.6013.02销售费用32.2548.1754.9463.9171.7879.18存货534.98565.89786.27948.52815.63976.01管理费用81.76102.34127.18136.95154.82166.27其他流动资产545.85118.4599.2691.30112.60134.60研发费用164.75185.28258.93248.33285.01318.29流动资产总计3372.113037.484039.814510.974698.535060.70财务费用4.1736.7948.4572.6993.2981.78长期股权投资127.70134.27140.75144.75149.75155.75资产减值损失-8.84 -8.63 -8.48 -8.00 -8.00 -8.00 固定资产541.01899.381433.951472.821603.291714.92信用减值损失-3.64 -8.87 -8.21 -7.00 -6.50 -6.00 在建工程614.65619.68274.88762.40783.25437.44其他经营损益0.00-0.00 0.000.000.000.00无形资产189.60306.36324.39311.99332.93337.20投资收益9.4611.288.188.0010.0012.00长期待摊费用11.6810.7615.217.600.000.00公允价值变动损益1.911.80-0.38 0.000.200.10其他非流动资产87.8288.08108.76140.78137.70138.62资产处置收益-0.29 0.10-0.06 0.000.000.00非流动资产合计1572.462058.542297.932840.353006.922783.92其他收益27.7025.9241.5930.0023.0024.00资产总计4944.575096.026337.757351.317705.467844.62营业利润168.44169.59154.89243.04316.99445.83短期借款292.53473.63888.062004.162081.691909.43营业外收入0.770.706