麦格理-亚太地区-投资策略-大中华区消费者：改变生活后的COVID-19-2020.4.14-26页.pdf

Please refer to page 24 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. 14 April 2020 Greater China EQUITIES Inside HK/China consumer valuation table 2 Structural opportunities from stay-at-home economy 4 What are Chinese consumers searching online? 6 Convenient food remains strong, 2Q is the key for beverage 15 Baijiu end demand is lacklustre 17 Dairy will remain promotion mode 19 Appendices 21 Analysts Macquarie Capital Limited Linda Huang, CFA +852 3922 4068 linda.huang@macquarie.com Terence Chang +852 3922 3581 terence.chang@macquarie.com Sunny Chow +852 3922 3768 sunny.chow@macquarie.com Cici Yu +86 21 2412 9078 cici.yu@macquarie.com Hugo Shen +86 21 2412 9077 hugo.shen@macquarie.com Greater China Consumer Life changing post COVID-19 Key points  The stay-at-home economy will be in play for a while due to social distance and crowd control.  Convenience foods remain intact; beverage picking up for summer.  Baijiu end demand still lacklustre; dairy is still in promotional mode. Consumer life is changing post COVID-19 and the stay-at-home economy will be in play for a while due to social distance and crowd control. This trend is confirmed by the Baidu Search Index. Our recent distributor meetings also confirmed this could continue throughout 1H20. What is Chinese consumer searching online? Based on the Baidu Index, the travel and entertainment (movies theatres) searching frequency are still very light. Social-related categories, such as cosmetics, baijiu and beer, are below historical trend lines. Training and exercise have historically shown searching upticks post CNY, and the trend is stronger this year. The ecosystem of sports, social media and digital commerce enables in-home exercise, which could support subsequent rebound in sportswear/ athleisure demand rebound. The stay-at-home or home cooking categories such as computer peripherals, kitchenware, online education, online grocery shopping, and convenience foods are above historical trend lines. Convenience foods remains intact; beverage picking up for summer Instant noodles are one of the biggest winners, with double-digit revenue growth in 1Q20, based on our industry checks. Even though sales normalized in March/ April when most of the consumers back to work, school reopening could generate a new wave of demand, so a demand off-the-cliff correction is unlikely. Premium noodles and self-heated rice are selling well, and UPC is the key beneficiary in this space. Beverages are very challenged in Jan/Feb, but momentum could pick up in 2Q20 for the summer season. Baijiu end demand still lacklustre Baijiu end demand has recovered back to 50% of normalized level. As of now, the restaurant channels and banquets are still waiting for the lift of social distancing, while group purchase demand hinges on business activities. It is likely that demand will remain lacklustre till Mid-Autumn Festival. Mouta