“十四五”期间中国商业领域展望（英）

Outlook of China’s Commercial Sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan PeriodBlue Book of China's Commercial Sector: Annual Report on China's Commercial Sector (2021 -2022) June 2022Blue Book SeriesIntroduction2In March 2021, the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 (hereafter the “14th FYP”) was approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress. The 14th FYP addressed the need to accelerate the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern, in which the domestic market plays a leading role, while the international market remains its extension and supplement. In the next five years, China will continue to deepen supply-side structural reforms and expand domestic demand, address supply chain bottlenecks, and further promote the development of the domestic commercial sector.China will also continue to promote a high-level of opening up, lower barriers to market entry, and work to promote the coordinated development of domestic and international markets, to create new opportunities for domestic and foreign enterprises and to achieve more sustainable growth.This report discusses the outlook and prospects of China’s commercial sector during the 14th FYP period and forecasts five major development trends. The content of this report is based on our recently published Blue Book of China’s Commercial Sector (2021-2022) (in Chinese). 3Key Development Trends of China’s commercial sector during the 14th FYP periodDigitalization and technology drive business model innovation04Boosting domestic demand and upgrading consumption 01Advancing the development of the circulation sector02Promoting high-level opening up05Huge growth prospects for the lifestyle services sector 03Boosting Domestic Demand and Upgrading ConsumptionChina‘s final consumption expenditure as a share of GDP (2008-2021)54.3%54.5%46%47%48%49%50%51%52%53%54%55%56%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021The average consumption rate between 2011-2019 was 53.4%. Despite the impact of the pandemic, the proportion of final consumption expenditure to GDP in 2020 and 2021 reached54.3% and 54.5%, respectively. Over the years, consumption has become a key driving force of China’s economyGrowth of total retail sales of consumer goods since 2000China is expected to become the world's largest consumer market during the 14th FYP periodThe total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 18.0 trillion yuan in 2011 to 44.1 trillion yuan in 2021 over the past 10 years.Source: National Bureau of Statistics18.044.1-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040502000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021(trillion yuan)retail salesgrowth rateFour trends that shaping the retail and consumer goods market during the 14th FYP periodShifting from exports to domestic salesRise of domestic brandsMore policies to promote duty-f