中国贸易季刊5月21日第62期（英文）

China Trade Quarterly May 2021 Issue 62 Domestic Trade China’s economy grows a record 18.3% yoy in 1Q21 Growth in retail sales further recovers in 1Q21 China announces macroeconomic targets and policies for 2021 Foreign Trade Surge in China’s exports in Jan-Apr signals recovery in external demand Jump in FDI in 1Q21 indicates confidence in China’s long-term prospects China and 14 other countries sign RCEP trade deal Fung Business Intelligence Helen Chin Vice President helenchin@fung1937.com William Kong Senior Research Manager Williamkong@fung1937.com 2 China Trade Quarterly, Issue 62 May 2021 Helen Chin Vice President E: helenchin@fung1937.com William Kong Senior Research Manager E: williamkong@fung1937.com Fung Business Intelligence 1/F LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road Kowloon, Hong Kong T: (852) 2300 2470 F: (852) 2635 1598 E: fbicgroup@fung1937.com W: http://www.fbicgroup.com In This Issue: Part 1: Domestic Trade A. Recent developments B. Policy updates and outlook 3 10 Part 2: Foreign Trade A. Recent developments B. Highlights C. Outlook 11 17 18 3 China Trade Quarterly, Issue 62 May 2021 Part One: Domestic Trade A. Recent developments 1. China’s economy grows a record 18.3% yoy in 1Q21 Thanks to last year’s low comparison base, China’s real GDP growth jumped to 18.3% yoy in 1Q21, the fastest pace since quarterly records began in 1992 (see exhibit 1). China’s nominal GDP amounted to 24.9 trillion yuan in the quarter. Exhibit 1: China’s real GDP growth and forecasts, 2Q20 to 2Q21 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, PRC FY20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 2.3% 3.2% 4.9% 6.5% 18.3% 8.0% With China’s private consumption finally catching up with the strong rebound in production, and given a low comparison base last year, we predict that China’s real GDP growth will reach 8.0% in 2Q21. 18.3 -10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.02Q203Q204Q201Q212Q21yoy growth (%) 4 China Trade Quarterly, Issue 62 May 2021 2. Growth in retail sales further recovers in 1Q21 Against a low comparison base last year, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods were up by 33.9% yoy in 1Q21. China’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 10.5 trillion yuan in the quarter (see exhibits 2, 3 and 4). FY20 Apr 20 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-Feb 21 Mar -3.9% -7.5% -2.8% -1.8% -1.1% 0.5% 3.3% 4.3% 5.0% 4.6% 33.8% 34.2% Oct 20 Nov Dec Jan 21 Feb Mar Total retail sales 0.51 1.35 1.18 -0.92 1.45 1.75 Nominal growth, yoy (%) FY20 1Q21 Total retail sales -3.9 33.9 - Goods -2.3 30.4 Sales by enterprises above designated size -1.0 40.2 Online sales 14.8 25.8 - Catering services -16.6 75.8 Exhibit 2: China’s total retail sales, year-on-year nominal growth and forecasts, April 2019 to June 2021 The stronger-than-expected rise in consumer spending is one of the most encouraging signs in 1Q21. Combined with a low comparison base in the same period last year, we predict that the growth in retail sale