Global Data Watch Ready or not...-111263196

Global Economic Research01 November 2024J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comContentsShifting dynamics of Brazil-US trade13Brazil’s fiscal dissonance16Australia: Racing mandates19 Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Economic Activity Tracking8Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan Economics10J.P. Morgan Market Watch11 Data Watches United States21 Focus: Let them eat chips31Euro area32Japan39 Focus: Housing CPI drag to fade43Canada44Mexico46Brazil48Argentina50Andeans52United Kingdom54Sweden and Norway58Emerging Europe60South Africa65Australia and New Zealand67China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan69Korea74ASEAN76India79 Regional Data Calendars81Economic and Policy ResearchBruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NANora Szentivanyi(44-20) 7134-7544nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcManaging EditorMalcolm Barr(44-20) 7134-8326malcolm.barr@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcGlobal Data Watch•US faces a choice of policy continuity or material change across multiple fronts •Gauging outlook impact requires clarity on size and timing of individual parts•Japan’s political uncertainty supports case for December BoJ hike •Next week: US election; Fed leads a pack of CBs easing ; COPOM hikesReady or not ...Elections have consequences and next week’s US election will be consequential for both the US and global macroeconomic outlook. A victory for Kamala Harris will likely deliver policy changes but largely represent a vote for continuity and our 2025 baseline forecast of trend-like US and global growth. By contrast, a Donald Trump victory points to material changes in fiscal, regulatory, trade, and immigration policy. While economists may be able to accurately gauge the directional impact of these changes individually, the uncertainty around the timing, magnitude, and interactions of these shifts allows for a wide range of potential macroeconomic outcomes. This point is underscored by Trump’s first term in office when a growth boost from 2017 tax cuts was subsequently reversed by a global sentiment shock related to the 2018-19 trade war (Figure 1). While recognizing this uncertainty, we maintain a core set of policy related views about the 2025 outlook:• US fiscal supports fade; mixed outcomes elsewhere. Both US candidates promote stimulative fiscal platforms, but a new US fiscal impulse will be constrained by likely limited Congressional control and the looming expiration of 2017 tax cuts. New legislative action will not likely take effect until the 2026 fiscal year. In the meantime, the 2023-24 surge in US government spending is set to fade as state and local governments step back (Figure 2). In 2025 impulses are likely to diverge in other large economies. In Asia, China and Japan are easing. In Europe, Euro area spending is expected to slow to a crawl, while this week’s UK budget delivered a large