欧洲央行-央行改革是否会带来更多的货币纪律？（英）

Working Paper Series Do central bank reforms lead to more monetary discipline? Alexander Jung, Davide Romelli, Etienne Farvaque Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3049 Abstract This paper investigates the impact of reforms altering legal central bank independence (CBI) on monetary policy discipline and credibility, two key mechanisms shaping price stability. Using a sample of 155 countries over more than 50 years (1972–2023), we show that reforms improving CBI strengthen monetary discipline and the credibility of central banks. Larger reforms enhance monetary discipline with a lag, achieving their full effect after ten years. Central bank reforms have a greater impact on monetary discipline in countries that have not reversed earlier reforms. CBI reforms have the strongest impact in democratic countries, countries with flexible exchange rates, and those without a monetary policy strategy. The effects of CBI on monetary discipline and credibility are amplified when public debt-to-GDP ratios are high. These findings underscore the crucial role of CBI as a key factor influencing price stability and highlight the risks associated with weakening institutional autonomy. JEL codes: C21, C23, E42, E52, E58 Keywords: Independence, Money growth, Monetary policy, Institutional reforms, Local projections. ECB Working Paper Series No 30491Non-technical summary Starting from the 1990s, many countries adopted central bank reforms aimed at increasing the legal independence of their central bank and monetary policy transparency. This paper examines how reforms altering the degree of central bank independence impact monetary policy discipline and credibility - two key mechanisms shaping price stability - highlighting the enduring role of CBI in fostering price stability. Analyzing data from 155 countries over more than 50 years (1972–2023), we show that CBI improves monetary discipline and strengthens central bank credibility. Our results suggest that larger reforms enhance monetary discipline with a lag, achieving their full effect after ten years. Central bank reforms have a greater impact on monetary discipline in countries that have not reversed earlier reforms. CBI reforms have the strongest impact in democratic countries, countries with flexible exchange rates, and those without a monetary policy strategy. These findings highlight the crucial role of CBI in shaping the key mechanisms that influence price stability while underlining the risks of weakening institutional autonomy. We provide the following key insights: Key Role Played by Reforms: Reforms that increase legal CBI yield long-lasting improvements in monetary discipline and credibility. CBI reforms limit excessive money supply growth, a major driver of inflation. CBI reforms also strengthen central bank credibility, thereby stabili