面对21世纪的危机重新思考我们的防御（英文）

Emmanuelle MaitreResearch fellow, Fondation pour la recherche stratégique January 2021Recherches & DocumentsN°04/2021Nuclear deterrence in Europe: points of convergence, singularities and prospects for cooperationwww.frstrategie.org F O U N D AT I O N for S T R A T E G I C R E S E AR C H CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 1 1. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE IN EUROPE: A CONTRASTING PICTURE .................................................. 2 1.1. Different positions and singularities .................................................................. 2 1.2. An accepted role for NATO’s extended deterrence .......................................... 3 1.2.1. A policy that is regularly formalised and debated .............................................. 3 1.2.2. Capabilities inside and outside Europe ............................................................. 4 1.3. Growing reflection on the contribution of independent nuclear arsenals to European defence ............................................................................................... 5 2. SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS TO PERPETUATE CAPABILITIES IN A REMODELLED STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.1. Participation in NATO's nuclear mission: a significant investment for some allies ..................................................................................................................... 7 2.2. Renewing the components of deterrence, critical choices for the UK and France .................................................................................................................10 3. PROSPECTS AND QUESTIONS RELATING TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN EUROPE ............................ 11 3.1. Variable political acceptability...........................................................................11 3.2. Limited prospects for cooperation ....................................................................11 3.3. Budgetary and industrial issues .......................................................................12 3.4. Nuclear deterrence and new technologies .......................................................13 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................... 14 F O U N D AT I O N for S T R A T E G I C R E S E AR C H 1 Nuclear deterrence in Europe: points of convergence, singularities and prospects for cooperation Introduction In February 2020, President Macron invited his European partners to create a "common stra-tegic culture" and to better appreciate the role of the French nuclear deterrent. NATO, meanwhile, declares more than ever that it is a nuclear alliance. At the same time, an un-precedented debate is taking place in certain European non-nuclea