J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-投资策略-汇丰与渣打银行：亚洲的增长机会

www.jpmorganmarkets.comAsia Pacific Equity Research17 April 2018HSBC & Standard Chartered0005.HK, 5 HKNeutralPrice: HK$75.95Price Target: HK$88.00Feedback from analyst trip: Rising growth opportunities in Asia2888.HK, 2888 HKOverweightPrice: HK$81.15Price Target: HK$103.00Hong KongBanks & Financial ServicesKatherine Lei AC(852) 2800-8552katherine.lei@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA LEI <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedRaul Sinha(44-20) 7742-2190raul.sinha@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcStephen Tsui, CFA(852) 2800-8592stephen.tsui@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedSee page 18 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.After 3 days of mgmt. meetings at an analyst/investor trip hosted by HSBC in Greater China (and meeting StanChart) last week, we believe that risk reward is positive after the 9% correction over past 3ms & expect Q1 to reassure. Our view is that there is limited near term impact on growth trends for these two banks from recent news-flow around Trade, with medium term profitability likely to be driven by: 1) higher USD & local currency rates, with HIBOR rising again post HKMA intervention; 2) resilient asset quality trends with improvement in credit in some markets leading mgmt. to increase focus on Cards growth; and 3) positive outlook for loan growth across retail and wholesale with our base case being a negotiated agreement on Trade with further RMB internationalization. While HSBC has a stronger Asian franchise, our view is that StanChart has more upside from recovery given it is more geared to a supportive Asian backdrop. We view the pullback as an opportunity to add, with 27% potential upside in STAN (OW and top pick) and 16% on HSBC (N). Expectations from HSBC mgmt’s strategic review: Based on discussions with New CEO John Flint, we expect the strategy refresh to focus on growth & efficiency improvements, with an evolutionary approach as a starting point. While the Plan A for the group remains a focus on organic growth, with CT1 at 14.5% vs. increased CT1 requirement of c13.5%, there is scope for bolt on acquisitions. In our view, the group’s DPS will remain stable out to 2020E, but buybacks will continue, and we expect $3bn in 2018 despite a low scrip take-up for the recent FY’17 dividend. If Rev/Cost growth jaws remain 1-2%/ year and impairments normalize upwards as we expect, mgmt’s target of above 10% ROE is unlikely to be met before 2021. At 1.2x P/B 18E, we see limited upside. Key positive takeaways revolve on growth opportunity: HSBC’s outstanding Asia franchise retains significant opportunity for growth underpinn