特朗普2.0与我们的应对（一）：米兰报告解读

报告说明 !"#$ CIFER AI %&'()*+,-./01234(56789:A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System;<=0">?@ABCDEF%&GHIJK'LMNOPQRSTUV!WX'RYZ[\]Y^_`ab+G^c 1. ]Y^c%&[\defW"`a'ghijklmnH'>opqZrW<=st/uvwE 2. b+G^c%&xytzd{|3}'YZ~•K€•‚ƒ„…†‡sHˆ:‰•‚ƒŠ‹Œ•Ž;••‘’+G<=`aE %&[\o“”'LM•xytz–—,˜™š•›œAu•žE 0"fŸ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§¨©¥¦u•‚Œ•KBª«¬-®¯E https://cifer.pbcsf.tsinghua.edu.cn/ V!°±"² 1. Stephen Miran, ³A User´s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading Systemµ, 2025. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf 2. ¶·¸'-¡¨¹ºu»¼½¾./9'¿À¡ƒyÁÂ'2024E ÃÄÅtÆÇÈÉ'<=GH°ÊËÌÄ͉Sc !"#$%&'( 1)4 * +,-%'( 3 * ./0123,45678'( 6)7 * +,-%39:;<'( 9 * ,4=>-%'( 11 * ./?@78-%'( 12 * ÎÏ°±"²ÐÈÉcÑÒÓÈ Ìf³ÔÕÖ×µØÙ ÔÕ:ju;Ú~•¶·¸ÛÜÝÞs AI ßà˜E³ÔÕÖ×µAPP #$¶·¸ÛÜßá⌕“z'¦ã CIFER AI äå挮çès AI éê¡ëì%&_í%îïð'Ùñòó““×"ƒô-<=GH-õö[\”s÷4ø`aùú'Ú AI û••‚Œ•[\s.CüýE ØÙæþÿ˜c ¶·¸'Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§!"ÛÜ›¨©¥¦u•‚Œ•KB:CIFER;i#›$%¥¦Œ•KB:CGFR;i# ØÙæ“&ABCDEFGHIJ '()'Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§¨©¥¦u•‚Œ•KB:CIFER;*ôŽ +,-'Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§¨©¥¦u•‚Œ•KB:CIFER;*ôŽ +./'K¨Â01ƒ§»¼•‚23Œ•45+Œ•&›CIFER Œ•& 678'Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§$%¥¦Œ•KB:CGFR;9€Œ•:& ;<='Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§$%¥¦Œ•KB:CGFR;9€Œ•:& Ìf-¡¨¹ºu»¼½¾./9 -¡¨¹ºu»¼½¾./9:¶·¸>?;@5•‚ƒs+^[\AB'[\¨©•‚CDE.¡sF*Gå——¡¨F¨©23›¥¦›ïð›HI›J0u013+4(KCD0ALs¹ºM5{|sëì›NOsöP›QRsßS›TUsVW'FFX¨©23u¥¦+×VY¬'Z[,¡¨¹ºs+×4(RÐÎF\S]â^X_¡`aKsd5›\b¡¨¹ºscdRШ©•‚½¾Feu®fEgK?yhij÷›¹ºklsm»¼½¾s+×'ntÎö*ßS'[\ήfopEqrstuvhttps://3.cn/2e5-BCUA Ìf CIFER Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§¨©¥¦u•‚Œ•KB:CIFER;“÷f 2017 â 11 w'#$fŸ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§':xf¨©¥¦›¨©23RÐ013+GåsŒ•ECIFER R"yz{|›}~K¨›•€»¼M5ÝÞ·•m»¼"‚ƒ„'…†f“‚K¨_»¼E‡ˆ¨©•‚ƒˆsŒ•u‰Š‹Œ'•Ž¨©•‚ƒ+×s®fud5MHy•€¨••‘›’–01®fsŒ•“zEKBi#¶·¸‚Ÿ ¡ƒ¢£¤¥¦ƒ§!"ÛÜE 目录 一．引言 .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 二．理论基础 ................................................................................................................................................. 3 三．关税：特朗普的“武器”再出鞘 ........................................................................................................ 9 四．货币：“海湖庄园协议”要来了？ .................................................................................................. 16 五．安全工具：特朗普手中的“王牌” .................................................................................................. 20 六．特朗普政策可能造成的经济后果 ................................................................................................. 22 七．结语：特朗普的政策逻辑 ............................................................................................................... 26 参考文献 ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 附录 《大国竞争与世界秩序重构》各章小结 ................................................................................. 32 1 一．引言 “”'•LM–…—S˜™<=sšˆ››œ•ž·Ÿ :Stephen Miran;EÏÚ—L¡Ts•‚ƒ•'f¢£¡ƒr¤•‚ƒ¥‹ƒL'¦§?¨s©ª·«¬-œ®:Martin Feldstein;ÛÜEϯ°XT±sƒð†‡'²XQRs*³•´'µF¶¢