2022-09-29-V.N-Visa Inc. Travel Recovery Tracker - Data Through Sept Shows...

James.Faucette@morganstanley.comMeryl.Thomas@morganstanley.comJeff.D.Goldstein@morganstanley.comSandy.Beatty@morganstanley.comJonathan.Y.Lee@morganstanley.comMichael.Infante@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCJames E FaucetteEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 296-5771Meryl R Thomas, CFARESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761-0774Jeffrey D Goldstein, CFAEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761-1197Sandy Beatty, CFARESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761-5777Jonathan Y LeeEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761-9499Michael N InfanteRESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761-4631Payments and Processing / United States of AmericaStock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewAttractivePrice target$291.00Shr price, close (Sep 28, 2022)$179.18Mkt cap, curr (mm)$381,47452-Week Range$236.96-174.84Fiscal Year EndingFiscal Year Ending09/2109/2109/22e09/22e09/23e09/23e09/24e09/24eModelWare EPS ($)5.917.428.479.75P/E37.724.121.218.4EPS ($)§5.837.428.419.86Div yld (%)0.60.81.01.1Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWareframework§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimatese = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesCash your FinTech Check. Listen in to the previousepisode of our FinTech podcast, The FinTech Check,where James hosts Sheena Shah, leadCryptocurrency Strategist at Morgan Stanley, anddiscusses the impact of the ETH Merge, stablecoinmarket cap and regulation, and the impact of fedactions on crypto prices. Listen here. Stock RatingOverweight Industry ViewAttractive Price Target$291.00Visa Inc.Visa Inc. || North America North AmericaTravel Recovery Tracker - DataThrough Sept Shows Demand &Healthy Trends PersistData we tracked through Sept, including incremental insightsinto Asia/Oceania passenger traffic, commentary from airlines,and announcements of further openings in Hong Kong andJapan suggest 1) cross-border travel demand can persist and 2)there's still meaningful opportunity left for recovery.Cross-border travel continues to recover well into the fall: Data we track acrossairports, airlines, hotels, and from other third-party travel data sources suggestdemand and trends for international travel remain healthy. As a reminder, V'scard-present cross-border travel-related volume reached ~115% of 2019's level inAugust from 94% in April, supported by strong recoveries in the US and Asia-Pacific travel corridors. Meanwhile, US TSA data shows airport traffic inflectingup to 97% of 2019 levels in September, after remaining at 90% for severalmonths. Despite this, US citizen departures to Asia-Pac and Oceania are stillindexing at ~50-60% levels, while departures to Europe are at 84% and inboundinternational arrivals to the US are at 71%, suggesting there's still meaningfulrecovery volume to recapture. We're encouraged by Hong Kong's announcementthat it would reduce hotel quarantine rules for travelers and Japan's update thatit will be expanding their reopening to include individual tourists, as data we trackshows a clear acceleration in tourism traffic once border restrictions are lifted.International touri