热卷周报：产量下降，库存继续累积

图表设置下载图片另存为PDF分享热卷周报 | 2023-04-24【题目】产量下降，库存继续累积 摘要：作者：林滋然从业资格号：F3058665交易咨询号：Z0019732王彬彬从业资格号：F03095193电话：15993379356邮箱：wangbb@hrrdqh.com【行情回顾】本周热卷10合约整体偏弱运行，周初小幅反弹，周三之后再度下跌，最终HC2305收于3883元/吨，一周跌幅2.58%。【现货概述】本周上海4.75热卷价格4070元/吨(-130)，对应10合约基差为187元/吨(-27)，热卷成本继续回落，利润大幅下降，其中热卷成本现为4047元/吨(-85)，热卷利润现为-57元/吨(-45)；钢厂无明显检修计划，产量小幅波动，总产量现为317.49万吨(-6.35)，需求触顶回落，周表观消费下降7.39万吨，社会库存增加2.73万吨，钢厂库存增加1.61万吨，总库存现为332.81万吨(+4.34)。【市场分析】本周热卷价格震荡偏弱运行，从基本面数据来看，本周热卷产量继续下降，目前钢厂利润回到亏损线附近，近期钢厂检修增加，预计后续产量继续下降；本周表需继续回落，库存延续累库，供需矛盾加强，3月制造业PMI继续维持在枯荣线以上，社融规模再超预期，经济复苏预期尚存；总体来说，本周基本面矛盾继续累积，后续产量、需求都将减弱，目前“金四”已过半，热卷需求恢复不及预期，加之原材料价格的拖累，短期行情或震荡偏弱运行。【策略建议】建议暂时观望【风险提示】钢厂检修超预期热卷周报价格与价差价格： 本周热卷2310合约收于3883元/吨，跌幅2.58%；全国4.75mm热轧板卷均价为4176元/吨，较上周下调86元/吨。基差价差：本周热卷10合约基差187元/吨，较上周走弱27元/吨。05-10合约价差136元/吨，较上周扩大12元/吨。远期结构：back结构；远期维持贴水。数据来源：钢联、wind类别指标名称2023-04-212023-04-14涨跌涨跌幅现货价格热轧板卷(上海)40704200-130 -3.1% 热轧板卷(天津)39904120-130 -3.16% 热轧板卷(广州)40804190-110 -2.63% 期货价格热卷01合约价格38073904-97 -2.48% 热卷05合约价格40194110-91 -2.21% 热卷10合约价格38833986-103 -2.58% 基差热卷01合约基差263296-33 -11.15% 热卷05合约基差5190-39 -43.33% 热卷10合约基差187214-27 -12.62% 跨期价差01-05跨期价差----05-10跨期价差13612412 9.68% 热卷周报价格：热卷01合约价格2,7003,0003,3003,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,60002-0103-0804-1305-2206-2607-3109-0410-1611-2012-252019202020212022202338073807价格：上海热轧板卷(元/吨)3,0003,3003,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,90001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0807-1608-2309-3011-1412-222019202020212022202340704070价格：天津热轧板卷价格(元/吨)3,0003,3003,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,90001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0807-1608-2309-3011-1412-222019202020212022202339903990价格：广州热轧板卷价格(元/吨)3,0003,3003,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,90001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0807-1608-2309-3011-1412-222019202020212022202340804080基差：热卷01合约基差-100010020030040050060070080002-0103-0804-1305-1906-2307-2809-0110-1311-1712-22201820192020202120222023263263跨期价差：热卷01-05合约价差30609012015018021024027030033036039006-0106-2307-1508-0608-2809-1910-1811-0912-0112-23201820192020202120222023价格：热卷05合约价格（元/吨）3,0003,3003,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,00006-0107-0608-1009-1410-2611-3001-0502-0903-1604-212018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-202340194019价格：热卷10合约价格（元/吨）3,0003,3003,6003,9004,2004,5004,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,60011-0112-0701-1302-1803-2605-0606-1107-1708-2209-22018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-202338833883数据来源：钢联、wind热卷周报远期结构评估：热卷-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.912020-08-202020-11-252021-03-022021-06-032021-09-012021-12-082022-03-152022-06-202022-09-162022-12-212023-03-28历史评估【热轧_远期结构】基差：热卷05合约基差-200-10001002003004005006007008009001,00006-0107-0608-1009-1410-2611-3001-0502-0903-1604-212017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20235151跨期价差：热卷10-01合约价差05010015020025030035040045002-0102-2703-2504-2105-1806-1307-0908-0408-3009-252018201920202021202220237676跨期价差：热卷05-10合约价差05010015020025030035040045011-0111-2012-0912-2801-1702-0502-2403-1504-0304-232017-20182018-20192019-20202020