第11版《国际劳工组织劳动世界监测报告》

X ILO Monitor on the world of work. Eleventh edition A global employment divide: low-income countries will be left further behind without action on jobs and social protection 31 May 2023Key messages X Various global shocks and risks are holding back labour market recovery, especially in low- and middle-income countries. In developing countries, responding to the current multiple crises (or “polycrisis”) is constrained by a combination of high inflation and high interest rates, along with a growing risk of debt distress. X The ILO projects that low-income countries, Africa and the Arab States are unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels of unemployment this year. While the global unemployment rate is expected to fall below the pandemic level in 2023, this reflects stronger-than-expected resilience in high-income countries rather than a generalized recovery. X In 2023, the global jobs gap is projected to stand at 453 million people (or 11.7 per cent1), more than double the level of unemployment. The real scale of employment challenges is encapsulated by the ILO’s jobs gap indicator which includes all persons who would like to work but do not have a job. The jobs gap is much higher among women (14.5 per cent) than men (9.8 per cent). X Differences in the jobs gap reflect a global employment divide. Low-income countries face the largest jobs gap rate at 21.5 per cent, while the rate in middle-income countries stands slightly above 11 per cent. High-income countries register the lowest rates, at 8.2 per cent. Low-income countries are the only country income group that has seen a long-term rise in the jobs gap rate, from 19.1 per cent in 2005 to 21.5 per cent in 2023. X Low-income countries in debt distress face a jobs gap of 25.7 per cent in 2023. In low-income countries that are in debt distress, the jobs gap is significantly higher than in developing countries at low risk of debt distress, at 25.7 per cent compared with 11 per cent. This reflects the fact that financial and fiscal constraints are hampering their policy responses, further worsening labour market conditions. X Some countries are facing particularly complex and cascading crises, which interact with broader global challenges and exacerbate labour market impacts. They range from natural disasters (e.g. the earthquakes in Türkiye and Syrian Arab Republic) to multiple economic shocks (e.g. in Sri Lanka), which have come on top of the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global cost-of-living crisis. X Significant social protection policy gaps remain in developing countries, especially in low-income countries, including in regard to old-age pensions. Only 38.6 per cent of older persons in lower-middle-income and 23.2 per cent in low-income countries receive an old-age pension. Investing in national social protection systems based on equitable and sustainable financing from taxes and social contributions and complemented by international support where needed, is necessa