Morgan Stanley Fixed-Investor Presentation LDP Election Candidate Who’s Who 自...-109946937

M FoundationInvestor Presentation | JapanLDP Election: Candidate Who’s Who / 自民党総裁選: 出馬が予想される議員の概要 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.Robert Alan FeldmanEconomist Robert.Tokyo.Feldman@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8400 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.Key TakeawaysWe summarize policy views of names emphasized in the press as potential candidates for the LDP presidency.　メディアでよく言及されている、自民党総裁選に出馬が予想される議員の政策理念を要約する。August 21, 2024 03:50 AM GMTM Foundation2The LDP Election Rules / 自民党総裁選のルールSources: NHK, Nikkei NewspaperThere are 734 votes.1/2 are allocated to the 367 LDP Diet membersThe other 367 votes are allocated by share of party member votes. If a candidate receives more than half of the total votes in the first round, that candidate wins.If no candidate wins a majority, there is a run off between the top two candidates.The second round has 414 votes: 367 for LDP Diet members, and 47 votes for LDP prefectural committees (1 per prefecture).The winner of the second round becomes Party President.First RoundElection Rules (Prelim)Second RoundM FoundationMorgan Stanley MUFG3Tentative Timeline 仮の日程Wed14-AugKishida announces withdrawalThu15-AugFri16-AugSat17-AugSun18-AugMon19-AugTue20-AugWed21-AugThu22-AugFri23-AugSat24-AugSun25-AugMon26-AugTue27-AugWed28-AugThu29-AugFri30-AugSat31-AugSun1-SepMon2-SepTue3-SepWed4-SepThu5-SepFri6-SepSat7-SepSun8-SepMon9-SepTue10-SepWed11-SepPotential candidates seek support, gather signatures for at least 20 supporters. Contenders announce intention to run.Thu12-SepFri13-SepSat14-SepSun15-SepMon16-SepTue17-SepWed18-SepThu19-SepFri20-SepSat21-SepSun22-SepMon23-SepTue24-SepWed25-SepThu26-SepFri27-SepFinal voting,Result announcedCampaign starts officially.Candidates campaign in local areas, seek popular support.Televised debates.Preparation PeriodCampaign/Voting PeriodGeneral Election ？？？Sat28-SepSun29-SepMon30-SepTue1-OctWed2-OctThu3-OctFri4-OctSat5-OctSun6-OctMon7-OctTue8-OctWed9-OctThu10-OctFri11-OctSat12-Oct … … … … …Tue31-DecDiet convenes to choose new PM.New Cabinet starts.Diet dissolution and general election likely. There must be an election within 40 days of dissolution.General elections are held on Sundays. Politicians want to avoid December elections. Nov 3 is a national holiday, so most likely dates are Nov 10, 17, and 24M Foundation4Sources: NHK, Nikkei NewspaperPotential Candidates/出馬が予想される議員 (1)林芳正Yoshimasa Hayashi: Born 1961. From Yamaguchi Prefecture. Diet member since 1995. Key Posts: Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Education, Minister of Agriculture, Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Minister of Defense. Education: University of Tokyo, Harvard Kennedy School. 石破茂Shigeru Ishiba: Born 1957. From Tottori Prefecture. Diet member since 1986. Key Posts: Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Secretary-General of the LDP. Education: Keio University. 上川陽子Yoko Kamikawa: Born 195