2025年终端行业发展趋势与变化报告-GfK

© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary!"!#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'(#)© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary2•!"#$%&'()*#$+,-./012•34356789,-%&(343:6/;2- !"#$%&'()*+,-.*+© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary,-./0'1234./56789:;© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary中国作为世界第二大经济体，经济增速维稳，仍处于领涨地位数据来源：IMF World Economic Outlook （Oct 2024）通货膨胀GDP3.3%5.2%2.9%0.4%4.4%3.2%4.8%2.8%0.8%4.2%3.2%4.5%2.2%1.2%4.2%全球中国美国欧元区新兴市场与发展中经济体20232024F2025Fn所有发达经济体的通胀率都已降至两年前的一半n截至2024年6月，G7国家通胀率已控制在3%以下n主要央行也开始将利率下调至更趋平常的水平n全球整体经济增长保持稳定，但内部结构发生较大变化n美国GDP下行，抵消欧元区经济的恢复n2025年中国仍将以4.5%的预计增速成为全球经济增长的核心引擎0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0201819202122232425发达经济体新兴市场与发展中国家中国4© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary70809010011012013092949698100102104China Bureau of Statistics IndexOECD Consumer confidence indexUSOECD TotalEuro Area (19)China中国居民人均可支配收入和人均消费支出增速下滑•Source: OECD (2024), Consumer confidence index (CCI) (indicator). Accessed on 21/10/24. * Amplitude adjusted, Long-term average = 100, based on Jan 2007 to Sep 2024. China consumer confidence: China National Bureau of Statistics of China | NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024, Global. Q: Compared to a year ago, is your household better or worse off financially?. •Global TCG Trends Report Q3 2024 – Global Strategic Insights2023/20242019OECD 消费信心指数: Amplitude adjusted* Jan 2019 – Sep 2024 Note: China follows different index calculation中国全体居民人均收入与支出趋势（累计同比%）234567897.6%Q2Q3Q4 2024Q1 Q2Q38.8% 9.0%46.7%5.3%4.9%5.3%5.9%5.8%6.2%6.1%3.8%2023Q18.3%全体居民人均可支配收入全体居民人均消费支出5© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary中国科技及耐用消费品市场预测销售额： 亿元 人民币销售额年度同比增长率2024年，中国科技及耐用消费品市场整体同比增长5%1,7801,6751,8861,6291,6531,7554,1753,7864,0543,6843,6803,7112,2482,4032,4872,4882,5492,5692,4392,8073,2313,3713,1893,18010,0729,93210,7959,46210,11811,01520,937 20,814 22,703 20,805 21,422 22,474 201920202021202220232024F通讯产品IT及办公产品小家电大家电消费电子产品摄像产品整体5%6%1%1%0%9%5%37%1%0%2%-5%7%3%2023FY VS 2022FY2024F VS 2023FY•Data Source︓ GfK Market Insights | Tech and Durables | Panelmarket（incl. CMM）6© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary全球科技及耐用消费品整体市场微降0.2%，多数品类销量增长、但销额下滑7•Source: GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking, International Coverage (excl. North America and Russia), CE includes Multifunctional Technical Devices and SDA includes Personal Diagnostics•Global TCG Trends Report Q3 2024 – Global Strategic Insights-0.2%1.8%-3.3%-0.8%-1.2%-0.5%0.8%1.8%-2.7%2.3%1.9%1.6%销售额（美元）销售量!"#$%&'()*+,-./0IT 12&'34567893:93全球（除北美）科技及耐用消费品零售市场规模|2024年前三季度 同比增长© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary!"#$AI%&'()*<=<>?@AB670'2<=<C?9D© 2025 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.Confidential and proprietary9中国手机市场走势：2024年1-12月中国手机市场全年销额增速9%，达到1.1万亿元，销量超过2.7亿台2925192218212623262121202345618910111273,6563,3533,5643,681