世界银行-天气冲击与农村经济联系：来自拉贾斯坦邦农业和非农业部门的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11079Weather Shocks and Rural Economic LinkagesEvidence from Rajasthan’s Agricultural and Non-Agricultural SectorsFrancis Addeah DarkoAkankshita DeyS. K. RitadhiAgriculture and Food Global DepartmentMarch 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11079This study examines the complex relationships between rain-fall shocks, agricultural productivity, and rural economic activity in Rajasthan, India’s largest state. Using district-level agricultural data from 1990 to 2015, enterprise surveys from 2010 to 2016, and household consumption data from 2014 to 2016, the research analyzes three key relationships. First, positive rainfall shocks increase agricultural produc-tivity by approximately 7 percent compared to negative shocks, with irrigation infrastructure significantly moder-ating this effect. Second, these weather-induced agricultural productivity changes have substantial spillover effects on rural non-farm enterprises, particularly those engaged in retail trade. Specifically, positive rainfall shocks in-crease enterprise revenues by 25.7 percent and value-addition by 30.3 percent, primarily through increased local demand for non-tradable goods. Third, rural household consumption responds positively to favorable rainfall conditions, with monthly per capita expenditures increasing by 6 percent during positive rainfall shocks. This increase is predomi-nantly driven by higher spending on luxury goods rather than essential items, supporting the demand-side channel through which weather shocks affect non-farm enterprise performance. These findings highlight the strong intercon-nections between agricultural conditions and non-farm economic activity in rural areas, with important implica-tions for policies aimed at building rural economic resilience in the context of increasing weather variability.This paper is a product of the Agriculture and Food Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldba