IMF-极端天气事件、农业产出和保险：来自南美洲的证据（英）

Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America Juliette Caucheteux, Jonas Nauerz, and Svetlana Vtyurina WP/25/52 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 MAR * Juliette Caucheteux is a PhD student at Oxford and was a participant in 2024 Fund Internship Program.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/52 IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America Prepared by Juliette Caucheteux,* Jonas Nauerz, and Svetlana Vtyurina Authorized for distribution by Mauricio Villafuerte March 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Extreme weather has profoundly affected countries across South America (SA), given the importance of the agricultural sector for the economies. However, these effects have not yet been properly measured. In our study, we construct a unique dataset of high-frequency satellite data on temperature, precipitation, and a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that proxies the agricultural yield in selected countries. In particular, we then examine the effect of droughts on agricultural yields (soy output) and find that they have a significant negative impact and that there is heterogeneity in the response across countries. While insurance could help protect farmers against severe losses, coverage in the region is low, and barriers remain high. Building on existing literature and using a calibrated structural model, we highlight the benefits of insurance for Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and offer some recommendations for its expansion. JEL Classification Numbers: D58, G22, O11, O41, Q10, Q14, Q54 Keywords: Agriculture; Productivity; NDVI; SPEI; Weather; Drought; Insurance; South America Author’s E-Mail Address: juliette.caucheteux@some.ox.ac.uk; jnauerz@imf.org; svtyurina@imf.org WORKING PAPERS Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America Prepared by Juliette Caucheteux, Jonas Nauerz, and Svetlana Vtyurina1 1 “The authors would like to thank Ariel Akerman, Tarek Alrefae, Sandra Baquie, Giulio Gottardo, Matt McKetty, Filippos Tagklis, Mauricio Villafuerte, Mathias Weidinger, participants at the IMF WHD seminar and colleagues from other departments for their valuable comments. We also thank Diego Gutierrez for helping with data presentation. IMF WORKING PAPERS Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South AmericaIN