IMF-卡塔尔的金融状况及其对经济增长的影响：卡塔尔（英）

IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 8, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/048. 2025 MAR Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar Dorothy Nampewo SIP/2025/015 © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/015 IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar Prepared by Dorothy Nampewo Authorized for distribution by Ran Bi March 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 8, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/048. ABSTRACT: This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Nampewo, Dorothy. 2025. “Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar.” IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/015). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: G1, E44, E37, C52, C58 Keywords: Financial conditions, non-hydrocarbon growth, Qatar Author’s E-Mail Address: dnampewo@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar Qatar Prepared by Dorothy Nampewo1 1 The author would like to thank the participants of the 2024 Staff Visit Workshop at the Ministry of Finance for their very helpful suggestions and comments. A. Introduction 1. Financial conditions play a significant role in shaping business cycle fluctuations. They reflect both the feedback of current and past economic conditions and markets’ expectations about the economic outlook. Thus, there has been a concerted effort toward the continuous monitoring of financial conditions, leading to the development of financial conditions indices (FCIs). FCIs are constructed from a broader combination of domestic and external financial conditions. They serve as tools that facilitate a deeper understanding of macro-financial linkages, as well as enable historical assessments by comparing the current state of financial conditions against their past cycles. Beyond their contribution to the formulation of monetary policy, FCIs can provide important signals on the current state of financial conditions and their potential impact on econom