投行报告-不确定性对投资、招聘和消费者支出的影响（英）

Measures of policy uncertainty have far surpassed levels reached during the firstnTrump administration and could rise further as new policies are announced andother countries respond to US tariffs. Much of the very recent rise in uncertaintywas related to President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plan, but even with thedetails of the policy now in hand, considerable uncertainty about how the policymight evolve, how other countries might react, and the potential for further tariffincreases remains. We estimate the effects on business investment, hiring, andconsumer spending.On business investment, applying estimates from our prior research andnacademic studies to the recent increase in uncertainty implies a roughly 5ppdrag on investment growth, which we’ve incorporated into our forecast. We nowexpect roughly flat business investment over the next year, and our quantileregression models imply that the probability of a decline in capex over the nextyear has risen to 45%. We expect much larger effects than in the first trade warbecause far more US companies are likely to be affected by uncertainty aboutUS and foreign tariffs this time, and many more could be affected by uncertaintyabout fiscal and immigration policy.On hiring, uncertainty about both tariffs and government spending cuts couldndepress job growth. We estimate that trade policy uncertainty will exert aroughly 20k drag on monthly employment growth, that the direct effects offederal spending cuts will reduce federal government payroll growth by 25-30kjobs per month this year, and that uncertainty about federal payments willreduce hiring by about 35k in sectors that rely heavily on federal funding such asstate and local government, healthcare, and education. So far through March,these potential spillover effects beyond federal employment have not shown upin the payrolls numbers.On consumer spending, some deceleration is inevitable as labor supply growthnslows and job growth slows alongside it, and tariffs reduce real disposableincome. Elevated uncertainty could impose two additional drags. First, it hascontributed to the stock market drawdown, which so far implies that wealtheffects on spending will go from a ¼-½pp boost last year to a ¼pp drag. Second,weaker sentiment and rising fears about job loss could boost saving rates,though our models suggest these survey-based measures have not always beenJan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCUS Economics Analyst The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment, Hiring, and C