砥砺前行，静待花开-中国人身险市场未来展望（英）

UNLOCKING THE 45 TRILLION YUAN POTENTIALThe future of China’s Life Insurance MarketHang QianLeonard LiLingyi HeShirley MarkBetty LiCONTENTSIn Brief 1Executive Summary 2Insights from consumer survey and agent interviews 61. Questions arising from market slowdown 122. Long-term industry prospects 172.1. The 11%-13% penetration outlook for China’s life industry 19Market anomaly 1: Negative spread has hurt Taiwanese and German markets 24Market anomaly 2: Pension schemes in Australia and the US suppressed life penetration 252.2. The 45 trillion RMB potential 272.3. Backbone of the potential: Traditional life, annuities, and health insurance 293. Market misperceptions and short-term challenges 34Insight 1: Influx of tied agents with unrealistic expectations leading to unsustainable “mass-in-mass-out” model 37Insight 2: Inadequate coverage for the middle-class and affluent due to mismatched agent quality 40Insight 3: Agency reform is beyond simply offering digital tools to agents 41Insight 4: Digital channel with inherent limitations is unlikely to challenge the current distribution landscape 42Insight 5: Huiminbao to spur commercial health insurance, not cannibalise 44Insight 6: False sense of protection among customers with weal insurance literacy 464. A customer centric structural reform to unlock the 45 trillion RMB potential 494.1. Building a customer-centric ecosystem 514.2. Agency channel: Middle-class and above customers served by high-quality agents 534.3. 2B2C channels: Go hand-in-hand with institutional partners to enhance end customer value creation 584.4. Digital channel: Broaden customer reach to jump start services and conversion 61Acknowledgement 63Appendix A. Primary Research Disclosure 64Appendix B. Glossary 66Unlocking The 45 Trillion Yuan Potential© Oliver Wyman1IN BRIEFHeadwinds have been observed in China’s life insurance industry in recent years with growth in Gross Written Premium (GWP) slowed down to single digits and First Year Premium (FYP) dropped for three years in a row. This has given rise to questions if China’s life insurance market is saturated, and if not, what prerequisites it will take to regain momentum. This report aims to address the questions by analysing the long-term potential of the industry, demystifying misperceptions and short-term challenges faced by the industry, while bringing forward the reform agenda for the industry to achieve the long-term potential.Long-term potential: Based on a set of peer comparisons across Asian markets, at a mature stage, China’s life insurance market can be expected to reach 11%-13% penetration rate, expressed in premium/disposable income; drawing from the experience in other matured markets, one can expect that China’s life insurance market will enter into an accelerated growth stage when disposable income per capita hits the US$7,000-10,000 range. The anticipated growth rate will reach up to 13% annually, sending the market to become the world’s largest in size by 2030,