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SHARED MOBILITY’S GLOBAL IMPACTAn economic, social and environmental analysisIndependent Study Commissioned by Bolt© Oliver WymaniiShared Mobility's Global ImpactQUALIFICATIONS, ASSUMPTIONS, AND LIMITING CONDITIONSOliver Wyman shall not have any liability to any third party in respect of this report or any actions taken or decisions made as a consequence of the results, advice or recommendations set forth herein.The opinions expressed herein are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the date hereof. Information furnished by others, upon which all or portions of this report are based, is believed to be reliable but has not been verified. No warranty is given as to the accuracy of such information. Public information and industry and statistical data are from sources Oliver Wyman deems to be reliable; however, Oliver Wyman makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and has accepted the information without further verification. No responsibility is taken for changes in market conditions or laws or regulations and no obligation is assumed to revise this report to reflect changes, events or conditions, which occur subsequent to the date hereof.CONTENTSExecutive summary 1Introduction 5Chapter 1: The shared mobility industry 7Chapter 2: Economic impact 122.1 Income opportunities 132.2 Focus topic: Driving for ride-hailing services 182.3 Indirect economic effects 27Chapter 3: Social impact 353.1 Affordability of shared mobility 373.2 Accessibility of shared mobility 453.3 Safety of shared mobility 48Chapter 4: Environmental impact 544.1 Environmental impact of changes in modal mix 564.2 Impact assessment: Singular mobility modes 594.3 Impact assessment: Multimodality 61Conclusion 70Appendix: City archetypes 73Methodology and overview of city archetypes 75Status quo assessment of city archetypes 77The road forward: Optimization of shared mobility impact 81Deep-dive: Berlin, an active mobility city 84Deep-dive: Lagos, an emerging city 89Endnotes 101© Oliver Wyman1Contents | Shared Mobility's Global Impact | IntroductionEXECUTIVE SUMMARY© Oliver Wyman2Contents | Shared Mobility's Global Impact | Executive SummaryToday, more than 4 billion people live in cities. By 2050, the United Nations (UN) estimates that this number will grow to 6 billion (70% of the world population) and that cities will account for 85% of the world’s economic output.1 This expansion is having a critical impact on urban transport systems. While economic growth and urbanization continue, only half of the world’s population currently has convenient access to public transport.2 This limits access to jobs, education, and overall social inclusion — unless an individual can afford to travel by car — in which case they are likely contributing to congestion, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.Authorities, institutional bodies and other stakeholders now seek a more sustainable model which can solve transport hurdles with efficient long-term