中国经济评论：制造业坚挺推动三季度和九月数据反弹，消费继续偏弱

Economics | 24 Ocober 2022 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 1 9 月经济数据和 3 季度增长反弹并好于预期，制造业升级，贸易和政策支持为主要推动力。汽车、装备制造、高端制造引领工业产出的强势扩张。传统基建，能源和技术领域的基础设施投资，以及企业资本支出支持投资，抵消了房地产的疲软增长。受全球制造业需求和中国贸易的区域化等因素支持，出口增长和对外顺差保持坚挺。疫情防控下消费，特别是线下服务保持低迷。 我们预计制造业继续支持年内的经济增长，疫情仍对经济有负面影响。预计投资和贸易增长仍将是增长的关键支柱，但疫情下消费复苏仍然乏力。预计稳地产措施继续推出，有助于支持房产销售的进一步温和复苏。反映疫情防控的持续影响，我们将 2022 年增长率预测下调到 3.9%。 宏观经济政策预计保持稳定。今年地方专项债的融资收入和其他金融工具（如 PSL）等仍为年内稳增长的政策措施提供资金来源。增长反弹和通胀上行的背景下，流动性政策预计保持稳定。关注 12 月的中央经济工作会议（CEWC）可能推出的下一阶段政策规划。 Sep data and 3Q GDP confirm that manufacturing upgrades, trade, and government policies provided key support to growth. 3Q GDP and Sep production beat expectations. Auto, equipment, and high-end manufacturing led strong IP expansion. Infrastructure investment in traditional infrastructure, energy transition, and the technology sectors alongside corporate capex were the impetus behind strong investment momentum, which offset weak growth in property. Exports again beat expectations, supported by still-robust global demand and China’s regional pivot. However, retail sales growth disappointed, reflecting the impact of Covid restrictions. We expect growth momentum to sustain in 4Q 2022F, though Covid remains a risk. We expect investment and trade growth will remain China’s pillars of growth though consumption and consumer services will remain a drag under Covid controls. Housing-related supportive measures are likely to continue, supporting a further modest recovery in housing sales. We lower our 2022 GDP growth target to 3.9% following today’s report. Stable macro policies in the near-term. We expect already-issued local government bonds and other financial tools to provide financial resources to fund public infrastructure investment through to the year-end. Liquidity policies are likely to remain stable given continued growth momentum. The Central Economic Working Conference (CEWC) in Dec is likely to shed light on the policy agenda in coming years. Li Cui (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com Kevin Xie (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH China Economics Update: Upbeat 3Q and September growth after strong manufacturing offset soft consumption 中国经济评论: 制造业坚挺推动三季度和九月数据反弹，消费继续偏弱 Economics | 28 October 2022 CCBI SECURITIES 2 China’s 3Q 2022 GDP growth beat expectations The 3Q economic rebound following the 2Q Shanghai lockdown was stronger than the consensus forecast but in-line with our expectation. Sequential annualized growth accelerated from a downward-revised -2.7% in 2Q to 3.9% in 3Q (consensus: 2.8%, CCBIS: 3.7%), and annual growth rose from 0.4% YoY in 2Q to 3.9% YoY in 3Q. Year-to-date GDP growth lifted from 2.5% YoY in 2Q to 3% YoY in 3Q. Strong industrial production and soft retail sales in Sep Industrial production (IP) delivered stronger-than-expected growth in Sep, rising 6.3% YoY, well above the consensus forecast