中国经济评论：1季度数据确认经济稳健复苏

Economics | 18 April 2023 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 1 Stronger-than-expected 1Q GDP reflects solid recovery in consumption and support from trade. In-person services, in particular catering, were a key driver of consumption growth, though auto sales also contributed. We raise our 2023F growth forecast from 5.1% to 5.3% to reflect the stronger start to the year. Macro policies to remain supportive. We expect continued policy measures in support of the recovery, including employment- and consumption-related policies. Front-loaded local government special bond issuance will support infrastructure investment amid global economic uncertainty. We expect the PBoC to maintain abundant liquidity and refrain from cutting interest rates as the economic outlook improves. 强于预期的一季度 GDP 反映了消费的稳健复苏和外贸的超预期支持。线下服务，尤其是餐饮，是消费复苏的主要推手。汽车销售也有所贡献。我们将 2023 年增长率预测从 5.1%上调至 5.3%，以反映年初的强劲表现。 宏观政策预计维持支持取态。我们预计持续的政策措施来支持复苏，例如就业和消费。在全球经济面临诸多不确定性的情况下，提前发行地方政府专项债券将支持基础设施投资。随着经济前景改善，我们预计中国人民银行将保持充裕的流动性，降息可能性不大。 Kevin Xie (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com Li Cui (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH China Economics Update: 1Q data confirms solid recovery owing to normalization in activities 中国经济评论: 1 季度数据确认经济稳健复苏 Economics | 18 April 2023 CCBI SECURITIES 2 Stronger-than-expected 1Q 23 GDP Sequential 1Q GDP growth rebounded to 2.2% QoQ, better than consensus and our own forecast. Furthermore, the sequential 4Q22 GDP growth estimate was raised from flat to 0.6% QoQ. On a YoY basis, GDP growth rose from 2.9% YoY in 4Q22 to 4.5% YoY in 1Q23, well above the consensus expectation of 4.0% YoY and our own forecast of 3.1%. By sector, the rebound was led by services following the exit of Covid mitigation measures. Growth in services output accelerated from 2.3% YoY in 4Q22 to 5.4% YoY in 1Q23. By contrast, industrial output growth slowed by 0.1ppt from the previous quarter, growing only 3.3% YoY in 1Q23. Mar data: Strong retail sales in contrast to weaker-than-expected industrial production and investment Industrial production (IP) growth accelerated from 2.4% YoY in Jan-Feb to 3.9% in Mar, but ended the month below the consensus expectation for a 4.4% YoY rise, and our own growth forecast of 2.9%. By sector, mining output growth slowed sharply, from 4.7%YoY in the first two months to 0.9% YoY in Mar, possibly reflecting increased safety checks as reported by Reuters. In contrast, manufacturing production growth accelerated for the second month to 4.2% YoY in Mar (Fig 1). Growth in electricity and utility production output rose from 2.4% YoY to 5.2% YoY, supported by manufacturing demand. Retail sales surge driven by in-person consumption. Year-on-year growth jumped from 3.5%YoY in the first two months to 10.6% YoY in Mar, well above the consensus forecast of a 7.5% rise. Catering jumped 26.3% YoY in Mar because of continued normaliz