渣打银行-2024年下半年投资展望（英）

WS Global Chief Investment Office 21 June 2024 Global Market Outlook Adapting to shifting winds The start of major central bank rate cuts marks a key turning point for investors as policymakers switch their focus towards supporting growth. We see it as a good time to adapt to these shifting winds by (i) staying Overweight equities over bonds and cash, (ii) favouring US equities globally and Indian equities in Asia and (iii) owning gold and EM USD bonds as diversifiers. In this environment, balanced foundation allocations comprising equities, bonds and alternative assets are likely to outperform allocations that are solely aimed at generating income. Our opportunistic allocations continue to favour growth sectors in the US, a barbell-like strategy in Europe and select government policy beneficiaries in China. How to craft a diversified Is the US economy still What is the message portfolio for the long-headed for a soft-from your quantitative term? landing? models? Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. 01 02 03 04 05 Contents Strategy Investment strategy and key themes 02 Foundation asset allocation models 05 Foundation: Our tactical asset allocation views 06 Foundation: Multi-asset income strategies 07 Perspectives on key client questions 09 Macro overview - at a glance Our macroeconomic outlook and key questions 11 Asset Classes Bonds 13 Equity 15 Equity opportunistic views 17 FX 18 Gold, crude oil 20 Additional perspectives Quant perspective 21 Today, Tomorrow and Forever 23 Performance Review Foundation: Asset allocation summary 25 Foundation+: Asset allocation summary 26 Market performance summary 27 Our key forecasts and calendar events 28 For more CIO Office insights 29 Explanatory notes 30 Investment strategy and key themes Steve Brice Manpreet Gill Raymond Cheng Global Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer, Chief Investment Officer, North Asia AMEE Our top preferences Foundation Allocations OW Global equities In equities: US In bonds: EM USD bonds Opportunistic Allocations Equity BUY ideas US technology sector US comms. services sector India large cap equities China non-financial divi SOEs Taiwan equities Japanese banks Bond BUY ideas US inflation-protected bonds Europe govt. bonds (FX-hedged) INR local currency bonds US Agency MBS FX views Bullish bias on USD Adapting to shifting winds The start of major central bank rate cuts marks a key turning point for investors as policymakers switch their focus towards supporting growth. We see it as a good time to adapt to these shifting winds by (i) staying Overweight equities over bonds and cash, (ii) favouring US equities globally and Indian equities in Asia and (iii) owning gold and Emerging Market (EM) USD bonds as diversifiers. In this environment, balanced foundation allocations comprising equities, bonds and alternative assets are likely to outperform allocations that are solely aimed at generating income. Our opportunistic allocations continue