2022 Q2 - China Outlook -IMA （英文版-中国2022年2季度展望-21页）

www.imaasia.comJune, 2022Page 1Richard MartinIMA AsiaChina Forecast Update, Q2’22The Path Out of Defensive China StrategiesQ1’22: Can Policy Lift China’s Growth in 2022?Q4’21: China’s Rough Ride into 2022: Reform Vs The MarketQ3 2021: Back to NormalQ2 2021: Deleveraging versus Growth www.imaasia.comJune, 2022Page 2COVID-19: Omicron Has Waned But Risk RemainsOutside of ChinaRising immunization with strong vaccines (including mRNA) PLUS natural immunity (prior infection).Inside of China‘Zero-covid’ policies plus high vaccination with traditional vaccines. No natural immunity.OUTLOOKAll current vaccines are less effective with Omicron BA.4 and BA.5. New variants are likely.Covid risk mitigation should continue.China will not re-open its borders until global risk reduces and it has widely deployed a local mRNA vaccine.01020304050607080901000100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22US: COVID-19 StatusDaily new cases, 7 day avg (LHS)% Vaccinated (RHS)% Fully Vaccinated% BoosterOur World in Data, IMA Asia01020304050607080901000200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22EU: COVID-19 StatusDaily new cases, 7 day avg (LHS)% Vaccinated (RHS)% Fully Vaccinated% BoosterOur World in Data, IMA Asia010203040506070809010004,0008,00012,00016,00020,00024,00028,00032,00036,00040,000Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22CN: COVID-19 StatusDaily new cases, 7 day avg (LHS)% Vaccinated (RHS)% Fully Vaccinated% BoostersOur World in Data, IMA Asia01020304050607080901000400,000800,0001,200,0001,600,0002,000,0002,400,0002,800,0003,200,0003,600,0004,000,000Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22WORLD: COVID-19 StatusDaily new cases, 7 day avg (LHS)% Vaccinated (RHS)% Fully Vaccinated (RHS)% Boosters (RHS)Our World in Data, IMA Asiawww.imaasia.comJune, 2022Page 3COVID-19: Daily Deaths (7d avg) / million personsChina counts covid deaths only if no other cause is apparent. The rest of the world counts covid deaths when covid led to a death with other complications. Nevertheless, zero-covid has been very successful in limiting deaths. China’s total deaths per million are 4 versus US with 3,029 deaths.If China followed Taiwan to zero covid with 4 deaths a day/million persons for 3 months that is 518,400 deaths in 3 months. But Taiwan has mRNA vaccine and good hospitals. So likely 1m deaths in 3 months best case and 2-3m in H2’22. Politically difficult.0.000.020.040.060.080.100.12Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22CN: Deaths per MillionOur World in Data, IMA Asia0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21J