2024年中国经济年度展望

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】669 号 Investment consulting business qualification： SEC License [2012] No. 669 刘道钰 从业资格号：F3061482 投资咨询号：Z0016422 Liu Daoyu Qualification No.：F3061482 Consulting No.：Z0016422 桂晨曦 从业资格号：F3023159 投资咨询号：Z0013632 Gui Chenxi Qualification No.：F3023159 Consulting No.：Z0013632 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。Important note: This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business, and the opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. Our company will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention, receipt, or reading of the content of this report; There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. 2023-12-20 中信期货研究| CITIC Futures Research 2024 年中国经济年度展望 Outlook on China Economy in 2024 摘要 ABSTRACT 回顾：2023 年，中国经济有所恢复，但增长动能偏弱，通胀水平偏低。经济恢复的动力主要来自防疫政策优化。不过，由于房地产进一步走弱，居民消费信心不足、外需回落等因素，中国经济增长动能偏弱，这导致通胀水平偏低。 Review: In 2023, China economy has recovered to some extent, but the growth momentum was relatively weak and the inflation level remained subdued. The main driving force for economic recovery comes from the optimization of COVID policies. However, due to further weakening of real estate, insufficient consumer confidence, and a decline in external demand, China economy growth momentum was relatively weak, leading to a low level of inflation. 展望：2024 年中国经济仍处于波浪式恢复过程之中，GDP 可能增长 5%左右。2024 年政府GDP 目标可能是 5%左右，中央财政将加杠杆。住宅销售可能仍偏弱，但同比降幅有望收窄。房地产投资增速可能维持负增长，但基建增速有望提高，消费继续恢复，出口边际改善。 Outlook: In 2024, China economy is still in a wave like recovery process, and GDP may grow by about 5%. The government's GDP target for 2024 may be around 5%, and the central government will increase leverage. Residential sales may still be weak, but the year-on-year decline is expected to narrow. The growth rate of real estate investment may maintain negative, but the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to increase, consumption continues to recover, and exports are set to marginally improve. 中信期货研究| CITIC Futures Research 2 / 21 目 录 Content 摘要 ABSTRACT ............................................................................. 1 回顾 Review ............................................................................... 3 1. 政策 Policy ............................................................................ 4 2. 投资 Investment ........................................................................ 8 3. 消费 Consumption ...................................................................... 14 4. 出口 Export ........................................................................... 17 5. 结论 Conclusion ....................................................................... 19 免责声明 ..........................................................