未来能源研究所-急诊科就诊与体温：来自墨西哥的证据（英）

Emergency Department Visits and Temperature: Evidence from MexicoLuis Sarmiento, Francesco Pietro Colelli, and Filippo PavanelloWorking Paper 25-11March 2025Emergency department visits and temperature:Evidence from Mexico∗Luis Sarmiento†Francesco Pietro Colelli‡Filippo Pavanello§March 21, 2025We estimate the impact of temperatures on emergency department visits using dailydata from the universe of public hospitals in Mexico from 2008 to 2022. We find thatcold temperatures decrease visits by up to 8.9 percent on the same day, and warmtemperatures increase visits by as much as 3.6 percent. Using distributed lag models,we then show that cold temperatures can reduce visits for the next 30 days by up to16.3 percent. For warm temperatures, contemporaneous and cumulative effects aresimilar (limited harvesting). These findings suggest that, unlike mortality, tempera-tures affect the demand for emergency services linearly. Leveraging the granularity ofour dataset, we also document significant heterogeneities (e.g., higher sensitivity forchildren and teenagers) and relevant mechanisms, such as ecosystem dynamics andbehavioral changes. Finally, we project that temperature-driven annual emergencydepartment visits will increase by 0.24 percent by midcentury, resulting in an esti-mated increase of 92 million USD in annual medical expenditures in Mexico.Keywords: Temperature, Morbidity, Mexico, Climate ChangeJEL: I12, O13, Q54*The authors declare no conflict of interest and are solely responsible for any errors in the manuscript.† Corresponding author.Banco de M´exico; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici. E-Mail: luis.sarmiento@banxico.org.mx.‡ Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Eco-nomics and the Environment. Email: francesco.colelli@cmcc.it.§ ifo Institute; LMU Munich; CESifo Research Network; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Ca’ Foscari Universityof Venice; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment. Email: pavanello@ifo.de.11. IntroductionIn the context of global warming, the impact of adverse temperature conditions on healthis a significant public health concern worldwide. Although extensive research has doc-umented temperature’s effect on mortality, its influence on subfatal health conditions re-mains largely overlooked. A primary reason for this gap in the literature is the lack ofcomprehensive morbidity data, hindering large-scale assessments and leading to an in-complete estimate of the health costs associated with temperature changes (White, 2017;Gould et al., 2024). This issue is especially pronounced in developing countries, whereclimate change is likely to have more severe effects due to warmer climates and loweradaptive capacities (Davis et al., 2021).We estimate the relationship between temperature and morbidity in Mexico using dailycase-level data on em