新冠疫情与旅游业（英）

U N I T E D N A T I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TCOVID-19 AND TOURISMAN UPDATECOVID-19 AND TOURISMAN UPDATEEMBARGOThe contents of this report must not be quoted or summarized in the print, broadcast or electronic media before 30 June 2021, 5:00 a.m. GMT, (1 a.m. New York, 7:00 a.m. Geneva, 10:30 a.m. Delhi, 2 p.m. Tokyo)Assessing the economic consequences2COVID-19 AND TOURISM – AN UPDATETABLE OFCONTENT2021, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States.The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.This document has not been formally edited.3COVID-19 AND TOURISM – AN UPDATETABLE OFCONTENTAbstractTourism is one of the sectors most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, the number of international tourist arrivals declined by 84 per cent between March and December 2020 compared with the previous year, according to data observed by UNWTO. Based on a range of tourist arrivals’ projections, the report quantifies the potential economic effects of the contraction in tourism in 2021. The indirect effects are significant. Due to linkages with upstream sectors such as agriculture, a drop in tourist sales leads to a 2.5-fold loss in real GDP, on average, in the absence of any stimulus measures. Based on three scenarios, one optimistic, one pessimistic and one where the asymmetric speed of vaccinations is considered, the economic losses could range between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion in 2021. The results highlight the importance of the vaccine rollout in getting global tourism restarted and other mitigating measures.4COVID-19 AND TOURISM – AN UPDATETable of Contents References 20 Appendix 21 Acknowledgements 56 Introduction 7 Vaccines and the uneven prospects for tourism 8 The massive contraction in tourist arrivals 10A grim outlook for some11Last summer and an update 13 Possible scenarios for 2021 15 Cascading effects 17 Labour market effects 18 Policy implications 5COVID-19 AND TOURISM – AN UPDATETABLE OFCONTENTAcknowledgementsThis paper has been written by David Vanzetti (University of Western Australia) and Ralf Peters (UNCTAD). The model was developed jointly with Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan (Infinite Sum Modeling). This project was funded by UNCTAD. This paper has benefited from the contributions of: Lien Huong Do (Australian National University), Graham Mott and Carlos Razo from UNCTAD, Sandra Carvao, Chief, Market Intelligence and Competitiveness (UNWTO) and Anna L. Peters. Graphic design and desktop publishing