乌克兰战争的全球影响：数十亿人面临一代人以来最大的生活成本危机（英）

BRIEF NO.2Global impact of the war in Ukraine: Billions of people face the greatest cost-of-living crisis in a generation UN GLOBAL CRISIS RESPONSE GROUP ON FOOD, ENERGY AND FINANCE8 JUNE 20222GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINEExecutive SummaryA war is always a human tragedy, and the war in Ukraine is no exception. The ripple effects of the conflict are extending human suffering far beyond its borders. The war, in all its dimensions, has exacerbated a global cost-of-living crisis unseen in at least a generation, compromising lives, livelihoods, and our aspirations for a better world by 2030. After two years of fighting COVID-19, the world economy has been left in a fragile state. Today, 60 per cent of workers have lower real incomes than before the pandemic; 60 per cent of the poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it; developing countries miss $1.2 trillion per year to fill the social protection gap, and $4.3 trillion is needed per year - more money than ever before - to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The ability of countries and people to deal with adversity has therefore also been eroding. As the war erupted, global average growth prospects have been revised downward; many countries’ fiscal balances have deteriorated, and the average household has lost 1.5 per cent in real income due to price increases in corn and wheat alone. Worldwide, more people have been facing famine-like conditions, and more people have faced severe hunger emergencies. The lingering effects of the pandemic, coupled with the war in Ukraine and the impacts of climate change, are likely to further increase again the ranks of the poor. And as poverty increases so does vulnera-bility, particularly for women and girls. Countries and people with limited capacity to cope are the most affected by the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Three main transmission channels generate these effects: rising food prices, rising energy prices, and tightening financial conditions. Each of these elements can have important effects on its own, but they can also feed into each other creating vicious cycles - something that unfortunately is already starting. For instance, high fuel and fertilizer prices increase farmers’ production costs, which may result in higher food prices and lower farm yields. This can squeeze household finances, raise poverty, erode living standards, and fuel social instability. Higher prices then increase pressure to raise interest rates, which increase the cost of borrowing of developing countries while devaluing their currencies, thus making food and energy imports even more expensive, restarting the cycle. These dynamics have 3GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINEdramatic implications for social cohesion, finan-cial systems and global peace and security.Food should never be a luxury; it is a funda-mental human right. And yet, this crisis may rapidly turn into a food catastrophe of global proportions. This catastrophe has been years