2021年3月全球贸易发展报告（英文）

U N I T E D N A T I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TOut of the frying pan ... Into the fire?T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T U P D A T E M A R C H 2 0 2 1 TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT UPDATE: MARCH 2021 Out of the frying pan … Into the fire? 2 UNCTAD A. 2020: Annus horribilis Although warnings about the spread of viruses have become more frequent in recent years (Davis, 2020), nobody anticipated the arrival of Covid-19 or its dramatic global impact. However, since the coronavirus' initial spread in the first two months of 2020, and the great lockdown in the second quarter, the global economy has exhibited a more predictable trajectory, albeit one marked by variability at the country and regional levels. In March 2020, an initial threat of a financial meltdown was quickly averted by massive monetary injections from leading Central Banks following a pattern already witnessed after the dot com crisis in the early 2000s and the 2008 global financial crisis, but on an even larger scale (BIS, 2020; TDR 2020). Their willingness to keep the monetary spigot open saw financial markets bounce back quickly from the lows of March/April with many ending the year at an all-time high (figure 1). Outside of the financial sector, lockdowns – mostly in advanced economies – had a dramatic impact on output and employment through combined supply and demand-side effects that spilled over across the global economy (see figure A1 in Annex). Figure 1 MSCI equity market indices, 1 January 2019–3 March 2021 (Index numbers, average 2019 = 100) Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on Refinitiv Eikon data. Note: MSCI Developed Markets Index, officially referred as MSCI Global Market Index, comprises 23 economies: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong (SAR, China), Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. MSCI Emerging Markets Index comprises 27 economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan (Province of China), Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. Investor anxieties, transmitted through pronounced capital flight, did have an immediate impact on emerging markets during the first half of 2020 (TDR 2020). The surge in net non-residential outflows was short-lived but brought lasting damage and the subsequent reflux of funds has been 60708090100110120130140150Jan2019Mar2019May2019Jul2019Sep2019Nov2019Jan2020Mar2020May2020Jul2020Sep2020Nov2020Jan2021Mar2021MSCI Developed Markets IndexMSCI Emerging Markets Index TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT UPDATE: MARCH 2021 Out of the frying pan … Into the fire? 3 UNCTAD dominated by a few larger mark