特朗普新政，中美如何应对-CCG

1 ! 2 !!! 特朗普新政，中美如何应对？ 2024.11.15 How to Meet Trump Era’s Challenges and Opportunities 摘 要 当前，在 2024 年美国总统大选中美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普大获全胜，将成为美国第 47 任总统。在选前的分析和判断中，全球化智库（CCG）认为特朗普的赢面更大。特朗普作为前总统具有较高的知名度和影响力，有丰富的竞选经验和政治运作能力，也善于利用媒体和社交平台来宣传自己的政策主张吸引选民关注。最终，大选前民调显示美国有史以来最胶着的大选以特朗普压倒性胜利告终，特朗普不仅赢得了总统之位，还带领共和党一举拿下参众两院，实现了三权独揽，这一结果让许多人始料未及。事实证明，特朗普再次当选不仅是其个人影响力和选举策略的胜利，也标志着美国政治理念的一次重要转折和调整。美国的这次历史性政治变局将给中美关系和全球治理带来深远的影响。 ! CCG 认为，特朗普上任后，关税政策将是特朗普对华经贸政策的关键话题，就此而言存在双边贸易谈判及中国企业赴美投资的可能性。此外，特朗普要兑现其“和平总统”承诺，存在中美博弈与合作空间，中国可助力美方在俄乌冲突、巴以冲突及朝鲜半岛等问题上开展和谈。在台湾问题上，特朗普或会继续保持务实态度，中美双方有可能在保持现状的基础上继续维持动态平衡，以避免因台海问题导致关系进一步紧张。对此，CCG 结合相关交流与研究，对新阶段中美关系发展提出以下建议： 3 （⼀）中美可就俄乌冲突、巴以冲突、朝鲜半岛问题等开展对话，助⼒特朗普兑现其“和平总统”的承诺。 （⼆）在特朗普上任之际，可考虑邀请特朗普适时来华访问，为两国关系的新发展规划蓝图。 （三）中美可在对话中就台湾问题达成新共识，如通过发布联合声明重申双⽅在台湾问题上的⽴场。 （四）可考虑与特朗普政府讨论如何推动中美经贸投资合作问题，发挥中国制造业优势降低双边经贸“脱钩”风险。 （五）中美可就增进基建合作开展协商，开展双边或第三⽅市场合作。 （六）发挥亚投⾏及世界银⾏等多边化⾦融合作优势，增进国际开发银⾏合作，为⼀些⼤型基建项⽬提供资⾦⽀持。 （七）中美可考虑放宽对中美双⽅关联的互联⽹企业、科技企业等的管控。 （⼋）可加强数据安全⽴法，在国内⽴法和国际协定谈判⾥充分反映外交部《全球数据安全倡议》相关条⽂及其精神。 （九）中美可加强就芬太尼问题及打击毒品犯罪增进沟通与合作。 （⼗）可考虑协商重新开放我驻休斯顿总领馆和美驻成都总领馆的可能性。 （⼗⼀）⼤⼒推进⼊境旅游复苏发展，建议效仿我对欧盟国家免签政策开放对美国公民来华免签政策。 （⼗⼆）协商继续巩固落实旧⾦⼭元⾸共识，以落实“5 年 5 万⼈”愿景为抓⼿和突破⼜增进中美民间友好往来。 （⼗三）可恢复富布莱特等项⽬，推动《中美科技合作协定》续签，助⼒中美⼈⽂交流。 （⼗四）可考虑在中美互派记者⽅⾯加⼤合作。 （⼗五）可组织邀请更多美⽅议员、智库专家和各界⼈⼠等来华考察交流。 （⼗六）可增进与美⽅政策界、理论界交流，尝试创建中美关系新叙事。 4 Abstract Having achieved a sweeping victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States. Pre-election analysis by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) had predicted that Trump had strong prospects for winning. As a former president, Trump commands widespread name recognition and wields substantial influence, bolstered by his extensive campaign experience. Moreover, he is adept at leveraging media and social platforms to advance his policy agenda and engage the electorate. Ultimately, what was predicted to be the most closely contested election in U.S. history concluded with Trump's overwhelming victory. Not only did Trump secure the presidency, but he also led the Republican Party to capture both the House and Senate, consolidating control over all three branches of government—a result that took many by surprise. Trump's re-election represents not only a triumph of his personal influence and campaign strategy but also a significant shift in the political ideology of the United States. This historic political transformation is expected to have profound implications for U.S.-China relations and global governance. CCG anticipates that tariff policies will be a focal point of Trump administration's trade relations with China. This could pave the way for bilateral trade negotiations and create potential for Chinese businesses to invest in the United States. Additionally, Trump has pledged to govern as a "peace president," which might allow room for interaction and collaboration between China and the U.S. China could play a constructive role in mediating