填补关键矿物供需缺口的新路径研究报告（英）-罗兰贝格

Deep-sea mining: A promising critical mineral solutionREPORTHow subsea mining can close the growing demand-supply gap for some critical minerals Cover: zhen li/Getty ImagesManagement summaryThe green energy transition, as well as the growing use of AI and advanced semiconductors, are rapidly driving demand for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper. Meeting this demand will require a major increase in mining projects, at least until a fully circular value chain can be established, which is unlikely to happen before 2040.Transitioning from a fossil-fuel-based economy to a minerals-based one poses a variety of challenges. Crucially, new terrestrial mining projects will require substantial CapEx and infrastructure investments. Even with increased ESG efforts, new and expanded terrestrial mining will also result in additional land use, biodiversity loss, and increased emissions. Meanwhile, there is a global race to secure resources, with China in pole position.During the last decade, interest from governments, industries, and investors in deep-sea mining has increased significantly, leading to exploration within national jurisdictions and international waters, as well as the development of new technologies, processes, and systems. Technologies now exist to harvest polymetallic nodules at scale, and a growing number of exploration projects are planned or already underway, offering high market potential and affecting the supply of cobalt and other critical minerals.This study aims to summarize the opportunities and risks, provide an informed position on possible industry developments, and what stakeholders should do to unlock this potential while mitigating environmental impacts. We believe that deep-sea mining offers an opportunity to diversify supply sources and close the demand-supply gap at a likely lower cost and environmental impact than terrestrial mining – at least until the growth in green technologies stabilizes and recycling becomes a significant mineral source.Decision-makers need a clear understanding of the geologies involved, the environments impacted, the technologies used to minimize this impact, and the economic opportunity ahead. This is particularly relevant for companies and countries dependent on critical minerals as they look to de-risk their supply chains.2 Roland Berger | Deep-sea mining: A promising critical mineral solution Contents 1 2 3456Introduction: Why deep-sea mining matters and what's at stakeStatus quo: The current state of the deep-sea mining industryKey challenges: Environmental hurdles and other roadblocksThe road ahead: Three scenarios for the development of deep-sea miningIndustry pulse: Insights from our surveyOutlook for 2050: Deep-sea mining can help meet global metal demand and disrupt terrestrial mining4816273642Page3 Roland Berger | Deep-sea mining: A promising critical mineral solution Introduction: Why deep-sea mining matters and what's at stakeThe world is transitioni