贝恩咨询：2018年假日购物季零售业回顾报告

BAIN RETAIL HOLIDAY NEWSLETTERIssue 5 | 2018−2019HOLIDAY RECAP AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS FOR 2019 By Aaron Cheris, Darrell Rigby and Suzanne TagerConsumers propelled a stellar holiday season, with overall retail sales growing an estimated 5.0% to 5.2%, well above the 10-year average of 3.9% and just below last year’s 5.3%. In-store sales accounted for much of this success, increasing more than 4% over last year. E-commerce growth remained strong, with estimated gains of 14% over last year. However, while the industry results met Bain’s expectations, winners and losers are diverging. As customer demands heighten, which retailers will continue to win? In this issue, we examine disruptive technologies that retailers are deploying to delight customers and win share in 2019 and the years to come.2018 holiday recapEarly estimates suggest that retailers had a stellar holiday season in 2018. Though the US government shutdown has delayed the Census Bureau’s estimate of December sales, other data sources provide strong evidence of success. In partnership with Earnest Research, we analyzed the sales performance of 21 major retailers. Our sample, combined with the Census Bureau’s advanced November sales estimates, indicates that sales were up 5.0% to 5.2% this holiday season (see Figure 1). While these preliminary top-line results are encouraging, it is important to note that they are only part of the picture. Retailers have lowered and raised their earnings guidance, yet full details on the season’s profitability are still pending. 2 | Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter 2018−2019 Issue #5 | Bain & Company, Inc.−5.0−2.50.02.55.07.5%Holiday season sales growth20010203040506070809101112131415161718EIn-store salesNonstore sales (e-commerce and mail order)Holiday sales grewan estimated5.0%–5.2%10-yearaverage:3.9%5-yearaverage:4.5%Notes: Holiday season is November and December; 2018 growth is an estimate based on data from Earnest Research and the US Census Bureau’s Novemberadvanced retail sales data; 2001–2017 growth is based on US Census Bureau retail sales dataSources: US Census Bureau; Earnest Research; Bain analysisFigure 1: Holiday sales grew an estimated 5.0% to 5.2%, which is higher than the average for the past decadeCan you discern fact from fiction in sales results?Postholiday quizTrue orfalse?12345E-commerce represented more than one-third of total holiday sales Big box retailers won big online this holiday seasonOnline conversion rates (that is, the percentage of browsers who followedthrough with purchases) peaked on Cyber MondayE-commerce basket sizes boomed this holiday seasonIn December 2018, department stores saw higher return rates than other retailers 3 | Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter 2018−2019 Issue #5 | Bain & Company, Inc.Consumers spent a healthy amount this season, but where, when and how did they shop? As we un-wrap the 2018 results, we invite you take our postholiday quiz to learn what was fact and what was fiction this season. Some of the answ