凯度咨询电商白皮书系列1：寻找电商增长源——概览

WHERE TO PLAYin a New Digital and eCommerce WorldWhitepapereCommerce Size of Prize 2022: 18 Trillion CNY with 30% of total retail sales contribution Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Kantar Consulting AnalysiseCommerce Retail Sales and % of Total Retail Sales (Unit: CNY, BN) 6%8%11%13%15%20%23%25%28%30%32%EC% of Total Retail Sales1,1491,8532,8213,8295,1567,1759,38612,01414,41716,57918,1862019E2012201320172014201520162018E2020E2021E2022ECAGR:+44%CAGR:+18%Internet User：Online Shopper Penetration:Spending：811 Million939 Million73%82%CNY 15,855  CNY 23,6182018E-2022ELeast MatureSTARMost MatureLess MatureMost FMCG and consumer health products continued high growth rate with only exception in Baby category CosmeticsPet SuppliesComputers & Office SuppliesApparelPersonal CareFurniture & FurnishingHousehold CleaningHome AppliancesAlcoholBaby ProductsAutomotiveDairy ProductsFood & SnacksConsumer ElectronicsBooks & DVDsLuggage & AccessoriesBeverageNutrition & HealthcareSports & OutdoorsJewelries 10%20%30%40%50%60%0%5%10%15%20%25%2017-18 YOY Growth (%)% of 2018 EC Total SizeSource: Kantar Consulting Data and AnalysisMost FMCG & Health ProductsAverage Category GR: 35%Average: 5%eCommerce takes 18% of FMCG total sales with various categories at different stage of development Source: Kantar Consulting Analysis1%3%5%7%10%13%18%23%28%32%35%BeverageFoodsHouse CleansingBaby & MumsBeauty and Personal Care2%10%20%30%25%40%25%40%40%50%Online Sales Percentage of Total FMCG SalesOnline Sales Contribution for Each Category (2017-2022E)15%30%Pet Products 02Young & Elder Female & Male High Tier & Lower Tier Cross Border eCommerce (CBEC)Social CommerceB2BO2OGo AbroadNew Business Model01 Grow Shopper PenetrationWhere the growth comes from?02Cross Border eCommerce (CBEC)Social CommerceB2BO2OGo AbroadNew Business ModelWhere the growth comes from?Digital and eCommerce quickly penetrate Chinese consumers across different age groups Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, CNNIC, Kantar Consulting AnalysisInternet penetration of different consumer ages in ChinaAge group69%7%84%74%13%90%12%28%16%5%22%201213%201597%8%10%97%15%83%94%73%42%30%21%19%2018E20136%8%100%99%48%89%77%33%11%20%18%7%20142017201682%37%20%10%93%85%100%21%100%55%100%Online shopperpenetration41%99%96%54%40%32%# Online shopper65 Mn243 Mn182 Mn70 Mn18 Mn14 Mn10-1920-2930-3940-4950-5960 and aboveUnder 10//Linked to Children AccountSpecial OfferSource: Literature Research, Kantar Consulting AnalysisRapid consumption growth from elder people made giants take action Launched on Feb. 1st ,2018•Parent Order and Children Pay•Selected products and special discount• Simplified Shopping Process and Elderly Centric Design Simplified Interface•Big Font Size & Concise Page • Number of elder users (>60) grew by 60%• Number of elder users (>50) was nearly 30 mn• Average consumption was nearly CNY 5,000 / year• Consumption of elder people grew by 86%Taobao in 2017JD in 2017• Purchased 44 pieces on average