BCG-打破生物制造的成本壁垒（英）

Breaking the Cost Barrier in BiomanufacturingFebruary 2024By Jean-François Bobier, Tristan Cerisy, Anne-Douce Coulin, Crystal Bleecher, Victoria Sassoon, and Brentan Alexander 1 BREAKING THE COST BARRIER IN BIOMANUFACTURINGBreaking the Cost Barrier in BiomanufacturingBut in areas other than pharma—whose business models are built on high-margin, low-volume products with low sensitivity to costs—innovations have created only niche markets in enzymes, fragrances, and food and feed supplements. This may be about to change. Demand is solidifying for products that use biological processes and genetically modified microorganisms in place of traditional production methods, driven by the need to achieve sustainability in manufacturing while reducing carbon emissions. At COP28, nearly 200 nations signed on to moving away from fossil fuels and, therefore, petrochemicals. More than 4,100 of the world’s largest companies have established emis-sions-reduction targets, according to the Science Based Targets initiative, with more than 2,600 of them including net zero emissions commitments. In its March 2023 re-port, Bold Goals for US Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing, the White House set a target of producing “at least 30% of the US chemical demand via sustainable and cost-effective biomanufacturing pathways” within 20 years.But for change to happen, costs must come down. Meeting the sustainability and emissions-reduction needs of global industry depends on achieving economically viable preci-sion-fermentation biomanufacturing at commercial scale and bringing production costs into parity with existing methods. These in turn require construction and optimiza-tion of biofoundries—large-scale, standardized biomanu-facturing facilities that can meet industrial-level demand—and continued improvements in strain engineering.Participants all along the value chain have important roles to play. Most immediately, corporate customers—the same companies that need to meet sustainability and net zero pledges—must demonstrate that the demand is real by committing to offtake agreements for future delivery of new ingredients and by adapting their supply chains and product formulations accordingly. Policy makers and regu-lators can smooth the way by offering incentives and loan guarantees and removing red tape. As demand for new facilities gains traction and financial risks recede, project finance investors can step in with necessary capital. As we have seen with other advanced technologies, the result can be a virtuous circle. The first optimized large-scale facilities can lower production costs by as much as 50% on existing strains, enabling some cost parity with incumbent technologies. More and larger facilities, as well as improved strains, could reduce production costs by up to 90%, achieving or surpassing price parity with current incumbent methods for most products. (See Exhibit 1.) In fact, we estimate that the market for biomanufactured ingredients in three industries—sp