CBRE世邦魏理仕：：2024年英国房地产市场年中展望报告（英文版）

UK Mid YearMarket OutlookIntelligent Investment2024REAL ESTATECBRE RESEARCHREPORT2CBRE RESEARCH© 2024 CBRE, INC.Intelligent InvestmentMid Year Market Outlook 2024 | UKContentsEconomic OutlookInvestmentSustainabilityOfficeIndustrial & LogisticsRetailResidential(Residential, Affordable Housing, Purpose-Built Student Accommodation)01020304050607OPRE(Hotels, Leisure & Pubs, Healthcare, Senior Living, Roadside & Automotive, Self Storage)Data CentresLife Sciences0809102CBRE RESEARCH© 2024 CBRE, INC.Intelligent InvestmentMid Year Market Outlook 2024 | UK3CBRE RESEARCH© 2024 CBRE, INC.Intelligent InvestmentMid Year Market Outlook 2024 | UKIntroduction2024 started with a renewed sense of optimism. While there was evidence of improved positivity with a pick-up in retail sales, consumer confidence, and a return to economic growth, there have been some less encouraging signs. Notably, the path of the inflation rate initially fell short of expectations as it all but levelled off, and investment volumes hit a record low. Still, as we find ourselves in the middle of the year, there are now stronger signs of a turning point. Now that inflation has reached the Bank of England’s 2% target, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in August is high. As the cost of living pressures moderate, consumer demand will rebound. Overall, the improving economic backdrop is positive for both occupiers and investors, which should stimulate activity.And, we are no longer living under the spectre of an impending election. The Labour party won a landslide victory, securing 411 seats. This gives the party a clear mandate and capability to drive its policy priorities. Our analysis of consumer confidence shows it increases in the period following an election in over 70% of the time. We expect this trend will be mirrored now and so the new Government will boost sentiment and provide a fillip to the economy.From a real estate perspective, we particularly welcome the commitment made by the Labour party to reform planning. This has been an underlying challenge in our industry for some time, with the time taken to get residential planning permission doubling over the last 10 years.The party has acknowledged that radical solutions are needed to boost housing delivery to the desired 1.5 million homes over the term of this Parliament. Executing a New Towns programme will be challenging. It will require substantial Government intervention (such as redefining the Green Belt to grey belt) and investment, but it is a vital initiative. The proposal to make the mortgage guarantee scheme permanent will also help support some first-time buyers who otherwise might not have been able to raise a deposit.Other initiatives include plans to drive infrastructure projects, including allocating £1.8 billion to upgrade ports and build supply chains in the UK, and a review of business ratesCollectively, we believe these policies could be advantageous for both occupiers and investors and should stimulate activit