2022年8月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售依旧疲软，地产债信用利差走阔

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2022 年 9 月 14 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：曹晓婧 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：8 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积环比减少6.54%，同比减少 19.10%。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨0.32%，涨幅较上月回落 0.21 个百分点。 房企土地购置：7 月份房企土地成交价款及土地购置面积同比分别减少 33.40%、47.33%，土地平均购置价格环比上涨80.37%。房企新土地项目投资明显放缓。 政策：8 月份 “稳地产”政策持续出台。央行引导住房贷款利率下行，国务院提出“一城一策”制定地方信贷政策，多部门出台措施助力“保交楼”、鼓励住房政策向多孩家庭倾斜。全国各地出台房地产放松政策，包括放宽公积金贷款、放宽购房条件、提供购房补贴、缓解房企压力等。 重点房企：8 月份百强房企销售操盘金额环比基本持平，同比降低 32.9%；中债信增全额担保龙湖中票发行；正荣地产2 笔美元债实质性违约；泛海控股 80 亿财务资助授权额度展期 1 年；蓝光发展、宋都股份对外提供担保，担保余额占净资产比例较高；世茂集团出售2宗北京土地，涉及金额33.17亿元。 债券发行与到期：8 月份房地产行业共发行债券 360.54 亿元，通过债市净融资-613.00 亿元。2020 年 9 月至 2022 年 8 月国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了 4475.54 亿元。 信用事件与利差：8 月份有 1 只债券违约、14 只债券展期，无主体和债券的信用级别调整情况。8 月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较上月末走阔 10.61BP。 总结与展望：8 月份商品房销售市场未有明显回暖迹象，仍在筑底过程中。供需两侧政策持续出台一定程度提振了市场信心，缓解了困难房企流动性压力。未来 “保交楼”工作进展以及各地疫情防控态势是市场信心能否修复企稳的关注点。 相关研究报告： 1. 《2022 年 7 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：土地销售市场热度双降，行业债券信用利差收窄》，2022.08.11 2. 《2022 年 6 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售市场回暖，房企债券融资继续净流出》，2022.07.14 3. 《2022 年 5 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产调控政策不断放松，行业信用暂时稳定》，2022.06.08 商品房销售依旧疲软，地产债信用利差走阔 ——2022 年 8 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China Sept 14th, 2022 Summary In terms of sales volume and prices of commercial housing, the floor space of commercial housing sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined by 6.54% month-on-month and declined by 19.10% year-on-year in August. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” increased by 0.32% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.21percentage points lower than that of the previous month. In terms of real estate land purchase, the land transaction price and land purchase area of real estate enterprises decreased by 33.40% and 47.33% year-on-year respectively, and the average land purchase price increased by 80.37% year-on-year in July. Investment in new land projects by real estate companies slowed markedly. In terms of policies, real estate stabilization policies continued to be introduced in August. The central bank guided the housing loan rates downward, the State Council put forward the "one city, one policy" to formulate local credit policies, and various departments introduced measures to ensure timely deliveries of presold homes and encourage the housing policy to favor families with more than one child. Many cities have moderately relaxed real estate control policies, including easing loans from the provident fund, relaxing purchase restrictions, providing housing subsidies, and easing pressure on housing enterprises. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in August was basically flat month-on-month and down 32.9% year-on-year. China Bond Insurance Corporation guaranteed the full amount of 22 Longfor Development MTN001; Zhenrong Real Estate has materially def