机械行业：需求边际向好，先进制造具备长期投资机会，“跑赢大市”

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 5 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report [Table_LeftMargin] 机械行业 Machinery Sector 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Machinery Sector 中文版 Alex Bai 白舸 行业报告： 机械行业 Chinese version (852) 2509 7202 ge.bai@gtjas.com.hk 20 December 2022 [Table_MainInfo] Demand Is Marginally Improving; Long-Term Investment Opportunities in Advanced Manufacturing; "Outperform" 需求边际向好，先进制造具备长期投资机会，“跑赢大市”  Downstream demand may improve in 2023, and the industrial automation equipment industry is expected to recover. With the adjustment in China's anti-epidemic policies and support for the real estate market, we expect the manufacturing industry to recover. The injection molding machine industry will benefit from the recovery of the macro economy. The die-casting machine industry will continue to benefit from the long-term growth of the new energy vehicle market.  China's infrastructure investment is increasing, and the construction machinery industry has marginally improved. Issues in the real estate industry have greatly reduced new demand for construction machinery. The Chinese government has increased investment in infrastructure, which supports demand for the industry. China's excavator sales improved marginally, and exports have remained resilient.  Demand in the electric tool industry is under pressure, but the market share of leading enterprises may continue to increase. The main consumer markets of the power tool industry are in Europe and the United States. The weak global economic outlook has put pressure on demand in overseas markets. However, leading companies are expected to continue to expand their market share, relying on their excellent brand strength and product system.  The adjustment in China's macro policies may offset the negative impact from the decline in global demand, and China's manufacturing industry is expected to improve. Under the influence of factors such as inflationary pressure and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, manufacturing PMIs in major regions of the world have declined, indicating that the outlook for the global economy is pessimistic. However, China's active adjustments in macro policies may drive the recovery of domestic demand in 2023, and the prosperity of China's manufacturing industry is expected to improve.  Risk factors: Economic recovery may be weaker than expected.  2023 年下游需求或将改善，工业自动化行业有望复苏。随着中国疫情防控政策优化以及对房地产市场的支持，我们预计制造业将复苏。注塑机行业将受益于宏观经济的回暖。压铸机行业则将继续受益于新能源汽车市场的长期增长。  中国基建投资逐步加码，工程机械行业边际改善。地产行业的疲弱令工程机械的新增需求大幅减少。中国政府加大基建投资力度，支撑了行业需求。中国挖机销量边际改善，海外销售维持韧性。  电动工具行业需求面临压力，但头部企业市场占有率或将持续提升。电动工具行业主要消费市场在欧美。疲弱的全球经济前景令海外市场需求面临压力。然而，头部企业依靠优秀的品牌实力和产品体系，有望继续扩大市场份额。  中国宏观政策的调整或将抵消全球需求下滑的不利影响，中国制造业有望改善。在通胀压力和美联储加息等因素的影响下，全球主要地区的制造业 PMI 都出现了下滑，显示全球经济前景较为悲观。不过，中国在宏观政策