博彩行业：预计到2023年第二季度信心将激增，上调行业评级至“跑赢大市”

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 4 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 博彩行业 Gaming Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Gaming Sector 中文版 Noah Hudson 行业报告： 博彩行业 Chinese version (86755) 2397 6684 noah.hudson@gtjas.com.hk 19 December 2022 [Table_MainInfo] Expect Upsurge in Confidence by 2Q2023, Upgrade Sector Rating to "Outperform" 预计到2023年第二季度信心将激增，上调行业评级至“跑赢大市”  Macao’s six incumbent gaming operators were each granted new 10-year gaming concessions on 16 December, in line with market expectations. We think this news was fully expected by the market and already priced into Macao gaming stocks, especially since Macao’s six gaming incumbents had already been granted provisional gaming concessions on 26 November.  We upgrade our Macao Gaming Sector rating from "Neutral" to "Outperform" as we expect a second upsurge in confidence by 2Q2023. Despite the recent surge in Macao gaming share prices, we think that Macao gaming sector investor sentiment is still under pressure from concerns of the coming winter cold and flu season in China. However, we expect that by 2Q2023, these concerns will pass, and will be followed by an upsurge in investor confidence in the Macao gaming sector.  We expect no reversal in the direction of China’s recent changes in its pandemic control measures. We also expect that by early 2Q2023 there will at least be news of (if not yet the reality of) normalization of mainland-Macao cross-border travel. We think that these two factors will drive a second upsurge in investor confidence in the Macao gaming sector.  We think Macao’s six gaming operators will all benefit from the improvement in investor sentiment: Galaxy Entertainment Group (00027 HK), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US), MGM China (02282 HK), Sands China (01928 HK), Wynn Macau (01128 HK) and SJM Holdings (00880 HK).  Risks: Reversal of pandemic control policies.  澳门现有的六家博彩运营商分别于 12 月 16 日获批新的 10 年期博彩经营批给合同，符合市场预期。我们认为这一消息完全符合市场预期，澳门博彩股价在信息公布之前已经反映了此信息的预期，特别是因为六家博彩商已于 11 月 26 日获得临时博彩经营批给合同。  我们将澳门博彩业评级由“中性”上调至“跑赢大市”，因为我们预计到 2023 年第二季信心将再次上升。尽管澳门博彩股价近期飙升，但在对中国即将到来的冬季感冒和流感季节的担忧之下，我们认为澳门博彩业投资者情绪仍然受压。然而，我们预计，到 2023 年第二季度，这些担忧将会过去，而投资者对澳门博彩业的信心就会激增。  我们预计中国近期疫情防控措施的变化方向不会逆转。我们也预计，到 2023 年第二季度初，至少会有内地与澳门跨境旅行正常化的消息（甚至有望已经实现）。我们认为，这两个因素将推动投资者对澳门博彩业的信心再次上升。  我们认为澳门的六家博彩运营商都将受益于投资者情绪的改善，包括银河娱乐（00027 HK）、新濠博亚（MLCO US）、美高梅中国（02282 HK）、金沙中国（01928 HK）、永利澳门（01128 HK）及澳博控股 (00880 HK)。  风险：疫情防控政策收紧。 [Table_InvestInfo] Rating: Outperform Upgraded 评级： 跑赢大市 (上调) 2 Sector performance 行业表现 Source: Bloomberg. (80.0)(60.0)(40.0)(20.0)0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22% returnHSIGalaxy Ent.Wynn MacauMelco ResortsMGM ChinaSands China仅供内部参考，请勿外传 Sector Report P