2023年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房需求转弱，行业投资继续下降

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023 年 6 月 20 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 梅芷菁 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：5月份 30大中城市商品房成交面积环比上升 3.74%，同比上升 24.50%，但与过去 10 年均值水平相比仍下降 24.12%；结合全国商品房销售数据看，30 大中城市销售表现要好于全国平均水平。百城新建住宅平均价格环比下跌 0.01%，同比下跌 0.11%，百城新建住宅价格趋于稳定。 新开工面积：5 月全国房屋新开工面积为 8503 万 m2，同比下降28.48%，降幅较 2022年全年 39.40%的跌幅收窄。与历史数据相比，新开工面积仍处低位。 政策：央行货币政策执行报告提出要因城施策，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，推动行业重组并购，有效防范化解优质头部房企风险，改善资产负债状况。地方层面，多个城市逐步放松限购，通过上调贷款额度、降低首付比例、放宽贷款和提取条件等措施促进住房公积金购房，通过发放购房补贴促进改善性需求。 重点房企：5月份 TOP100房企销售总额同比增长 6.7%；荣盛发展为旗下公司新增 34.39 亿元担保，同时筹划增发股份购买资产；蓝光发展因股价连续 20 日低于 1 元从 A 股退市，此外数家房企也即将面值退市。 债券发行与到期：5 月份房地产行业共发行债券 329.03 亿元，偿还债券 604.88 亿元，通过债市净融资-275.86 亿元。 信用事件与级别调整：5月份新增 5只债券违约，11只债券展期。有 1 家房地产企业信用级别被上调。 总结与展望：5月份房地产市场交易行情复苏放缓，尽管近期各地不断放松限购、鼓励住房公积金贷款、发放购房补贴，楼市促进政策不断加码，但未能扭转房地产需求下行趋势。在需求走弱背景下，房地产企业投资新项目也较为谨慎，行业债务融资规模下降。近日数家A 股上市房企股价触发面值退市，反映出房企内部人士对经营前景预期悲观，相关企业债券偿付前景不佳，已逾期债券预计回收率很低。 相关研究报告： 1. 《商品房销售复苏放缓，各线城市分化加剧——2023 年 4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.05.22 2. 《商品房销售明显复苏，境内债发行持续回温——2023 年3 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.04.23 3. 《商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温——2023 年 2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.03.20 商品房需求转弱，行业投资继续下降 ——2023 年 5 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China June 20th, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has increased by 3.74% month-on-month and 24.50% year-on-year in May, but it is still down 24.12% compared with the average level of the past 10 years. Combined with the national commercialized buildings sales data, the sales performance of 30 large and medium-sized cities is better than the national average. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.01% month-on-month and 0.11% year-on-year, which tended to be stable. In terms of real estate started, the national floor space of real estate started in May was 85.03 million m², down 28.48% year-on-year, which is narrower than the 39.40% decline in the whole year of 2022. Compared with historical data, the floor space of real estate started is still low. In terms of policies, the central bank's monetary policy implementation report proposed that the city should implement policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, promote industry restructuring and mergers & acquisitions, effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head real estate companies, and improve the balance sheet situation. At the local level, a number of cities have gradually relaxed purchase restrictions, promoted housing provident fund purchases by raising the loan limit, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing loans and withdrawal conditions, and promoted improved demand by issuing house purchase subsidies. In terms of key real estate companies, the total