食品饮料行业周报：端午动销符合预期，板块蓄势下半年

2023 年 06 月 26 日端午动销符合预期，板块蓄势下半年—食品饮料行业周报推荐(维持)投资要点分析师：孙山山S1050521110005sunss@cfsc.com.cn分析师：何宇航S1050522090002heyh1@cfsc.com.cn行业相对表现表现1M3M12M食品饮料(申万)-0.3-8.0-12.9沪深 3000.4-4.0-12.1市场表现资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究相关研究1、《食品饮料行业周报：看好白酒迎反弹，关注端午动销反馈》2023-06-182、《食品饮料行业周报：板块继续磨底中，继续关注餐饮复苏》2023-06-113、《食品饮料行业周报：板块磨底进行时，重视个股边际改善》2023-06-04▌ 一周新闻速递行业新闻：1）中国酒业协会威士忌技术委员会成立。2）京东 618 酒类成交额增长 80%。公司新闻：1）五粮液：五粮液新能源公司参投光伏公司。2）可口可乐：超 15 亿收购烈酒品牌。3）红星股份：红星山西酿造基地一期投产。▌ 投资观点当前我们仍维持之前子板块顺序：白酒>啤酒>休闲食品=软饮料>速冻食品>调味品>乳制品。白酒板块：根据渠道反馈，1）各酒企端午促销活动纷纷出新，动销反馈符合预期。2）各地消费分化，部分地区商务宴请基本恢复至 19 年同期并略有增长。3）茅台与汾酒表现较好，五粮液与国窖表现一般，次高端表现较弱，中高端价格带表现良好。4）主流产品批价环比回落，如飞天、普五、青花 30、M6+等。目前白酒板块仍处于底部区间，上半年以消化库存和挺价为主，看好下半年中秋国庆双节动销表现，继续重点推荐 2+4+3 产品矩阵，即泸州老窖+五粮液+次高端四杰+老白干酒+金种子酒+今世缘，关注洋河股份和古井贡酒。大众品板块：当前大众品板块处于淡季，餐饮端仍在弱复苏阶段，原材料等处于下行区间，建议关注端午餐饮渠道复苏及边际改善个股。现阶段重点推荐 3+3+3+3 产品矩阵，即休闲食品三剑客（盐津铺子+甘源食品+劲仔食品）+啤酒三杰（重庆啤酒+青岛啤酒+燕京啤酒）+调味品三杰（中炬高新+日辰股份+晨光生物）+预期差三杰（涪陵榨菜+佳禾食品+道道全）。维持食品饮料行业“推荐”投资评级。▌ 风险提示疫情波动风险；宏观经济波动风险；推荐公司业绩不及预期的风险；行业竞争风险；食品安全风险；行业政策变动风险；消费税或生产风险；原材料价格波动风险等。证券研究报证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2诚信、专业、稳健、高效重点关注公司及盈利预测公司代码名称2023/6/23股价EPSPE投资评级2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E600519.SH贵州茅台1735.8358.2667.6577.7529.7925.6622.33买入000858.SZ五粮液171.408.059.3210.6621.2918.3916.08买入000568.SZ泸州老窖219.908.6610.5712.7325.3920.8017.27买入600809.SH山西汾酒203.608.6310.6913.0523.5919.0515.60买入002304.SZ洋河股份137.517.488.9710.5918.3815.3312.98买入000799.SZ酒鬼酒93.834.014.915.9523.4019.1115.77买入600702.SH舍得酒业134.026.458.049.8720.7816.6713.58买入600779.SH水井坊62.242.923.413.9221.3218.2515.88买入000596.SZ古井贡酒257.587.759.6711.9533.2426.6421.55买入603369.SH今世缘57.152.643.344.1721.6517.1113.71买入603589.SH口子窖53.003.163.724.3316.7714.2512.24买入603198.SH迎驾贡酒61.882.763.454.2322.4217.9414.63买入600199.SH金种子酒24.580.040.190.39614.50129.3763.03买入603919.SH金徽酒24.000.791.031.3030.3823.3018.46买入600197.SH伊力特28.030.731.131.5738.4024.8117.85买入600559.SH老白干酒26.570.831.111.4232.0123.9418.71买入603288.SH海天味业49.651.471.701.9533.7829.2125.46买入603027.SH千禾味业20.910.480.610.7743.5634.2827.16买入603317.SH天味食品14.920.410.530.6836.3928.1521.94买入600872.SH中炬高新38.171.021.211.4137.4231.5527.07买入002507.SZ涪陵榨菜18.271.121.311.5216.3113.9512.02买入600305.SH恒顺醋业10.890.190.240.3057.3245.3836.30买入603755.SH日辰股份30.320.931.241.6532.6024.4518.38买入603170.SH宝立食品20.810.680.861.0830.6024.2019.27买入300999.SZ金龙鱼40.230.981.281.6641.0531.4324.23买入300908.SZ仲景食品45.761.661.912.1727.5723.9621.09买入600298.SH安琪酵母36.781.682.042.3921.8918.0315.39买入300138.SZ晨光生物17.511.021.271.5817.1713.7911.08买入300755.SZ华致酒行23.851.702.363.1114.0310.117.67买入605499.SH东鹏饮料172.004.675.977.4136.8328.8123.21买入603711.SH香飘飘20.400.680.830.9830.0024.5820.82买入605337.SH李子园18.411.021.221.4618.0515.0912.61买入600132.SH重庆啤酒96.253.193.844.5630.1725.0721.11买入600600.SH青岛啤酒102.693.323.884.4430.9326.4723.13买入603345.SH安井食品157.725.166.758.4530.5723.3718.67买入603517.SH绝味食品39.421.361.782.3128.9922.1517.06买入603057.SH紫燕食品24.050.981.241.5524.5419.4015.52买入002847.SZ盐津铺子81.322.383.214.2134.1725.3319.32买入证券研究报告请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3诚信、专业、稳健、高效603719.SH良品铺子26.791.011.201.3826.5222.3319.41买入002991.SZ甘源食品76.