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Equity Research·Company Research·Software & Service Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) 1 / 40 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 With manageable Ads competition, AI empowers Google cloud growth Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E Revenue (USD mn) 307,394.00 352,882.98 394,718.09 438,211.74 Growth (YoY %) 8.68 14.80 11.86 11.02 Net profit (USD mn) 73,795.00 94,544.31 106,509.96 120,550.72 Growth (YoY %) 23.05 28.12 12.66 13.18 Diluted EPS (USD) 5.97 7.65 8.62 9.75 P/E (x) 29.78 23.25 20.64 18.23 Investment Thesis ◼ Google Search: proactively embracing industry changes. Google Search has grown into an industry leader through technological innovation and a multi-dimensional ecosystem layout that enhances personalized services and search experiences. Google has maintained over 90% of the market share in the global search engine market for years. Amid challenges from competitors like OpenAI and Bing, the global desktop search market has experienced some disruption, but the mobile search market remains largely unaffected. Given Google’s ecological advantages in mobile search and the current instability of AI search technology, Google Search’s leadership position is likely to remain unchallenged in the short term. Additionally, Google has launched multiple self-developed large models and integrated AI capabilities into “search-native” AI solutions named SGE, using generative AI to provide better search experiences for users and higher conversion rates for advertisers. We forecast Google Search’s advertising revenue to grow by 12.8%/10.8%/9.8% yoy from 2024 to 2026. ◼ YouTube: navigating opportunities and challenges. As a leader in mid-length videos with a full product matrix layout, YouTube is the most favored video platform for advertisers worldwide. With AI empowerment, YouTube is continuously lowering the barriers for creators and enhancing user viewing experiences. The introduction of features like Demand Gen and P-Max has improved advertisers' conversion rates and returns. Major events in 24H2, including the Paris Olympics and the US presidential election, are likely to benefit YouTube significantly as a leader in mid-length videos and live streaming. We project YouTube’s advertising revenue to grow by 24.2%/13.2%/11.5% yoy from 2024 to 2026. ◼ Google Cloud: from pioneer to competitor, AI empowerment promises growth. We are optimistic about Google Cloud’s growing competitiveness with AI empowerment, expecting its market share to continue expanding. Google Cloud offers cost-effective products through a rich portfolio of AI models, competitive pricing strategies, and hardware innovations that optimize training costs. We anticipate Google Cloud’s revenue growth to reaccelerate post-23Q3, bolstered by the multi-cloud trend and growing user base. As Google Cloud expands in scale, reduces costs, and enhances its competitiveness, its future OPM is likely to continue improving, with significant potential for profitability enhancement