商品房成交量大幅下滑，新增 4 只房地产债券违约——2021年8月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021 年 9 月 8 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：8 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降24.61%，成交出现大幅下滑。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨3.51%，涨幅有所下降。二手房出售挂牌量指数下降 3.49，二手房出售挂牌价指数上涨 0.20。 政策：银保监会强调严格执行“三线四档”和房地产贷款集中度管理制度，央行货币政策执行报告重申“房住不炒”，自然资源部调整重点城市第二批次土地出让政策；各重点城市调整土地出让竞拍规则，多地加强房地产限购、限价，内蒙古、贵州等地收紧房贷。 重点房企：首开股份拟发行 34.2 亿元公司债，阳光城为旗下公司担保金额达净资产 306.84%，金科股份为旗下公司担保金额达净资产 224.41%，央行、银保监会约谈恒大，阳光 100出现美元债券违约。 债券发行与到期：8 月份房地产行业共发行债券 527.29 亿元，通过债市净融资-408.10 亿元。不考虑资产支持证券，8 月份境内债券市场上房地产行业 AA 级主体发行规模占比为13.11%。 信用事件与利差：8 月份新增违约债券 4 只，合计逾期本金 44.89 亿元。有 1 家主体和 11 只债券的信用级别被下调。兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）下降了 6.01bp。 展望未来：房地产需求预计会继续被严格的调控政策抑制，进而房企的去库速度可能会变慢，需要关注库存对房企资金链的压力。近期政策大力鼓励租赁住房建设，未来租赁住房有很大增长空间。部分房企通过新增担保获取债务资金，需要关注大额担保融资背后的债务风险。 相关研究报告： 1.《重点房企买地金额被限制，蓝光发展 13 只债券违约——2021 年 7 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.8.10 2.《多地银行暂停二手房贷款，AAA 级发行人比例降低——2021 年 6 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.7.12 3.《品房成交有所降温，AAA级利差进一步下降——2021 年5 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.6.8 4.《住宅交易价格管控趋严，AA 级债券信用利差上升——2021 年 4 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.5.12 商品房成交量大幅下滑，新增 4 只房地产债券违约 ——2021 年 8 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China September 8th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has fell by 24.61% month-on-month in August, showing that the transaction volume fell sharply. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 3.51% year-on-year, and the rate of increase has declined. The index of second-hand housing volume has declined by 3.49, and the index of second-hand housing price has risen by 0.20. In terms of policies, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to strictly implement the "three lines and four files" and the real estate loan concentration management. The Monetary Policy Implementation Report reiterated that “house is for living rather than speculating”. The Ministry of Natural Resources has adjusted the land transfer policies of second batch in key cities. The key cities have adjusted land transfer bidding rules. Several cities have strengthened the restriction on real estate purchasing and price. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou and other places have tighten mortgages. In terms of key real estate companies, Beijing Capital Development intended to issue 3.42 billion yuan of corporate bonds. Yango Group has guarantees 306.84% of its net assets, and Jinke Property Group has guaranteed 224.41% of net assets for its subsidiaries. The Central Bank and China Banking Regulatory Commission have interviewed Evergrande Group. Sunshine 100 has defaulted on US dollar bond. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 52.729-billion-yuan bonds in August, and received -40.81 billio