2022年2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，4家主体信用级别下调

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2022 年 3 月 9 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：1-2 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比减少 28.75%，成交量仍明显低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格环比上涨 0.03%，环比由跌转涨。 房地产贷款：2 月份 103 个监测城市的首套房贷平均利率为 5.47%，二套房贷平均利率为 5.75%，均较上月下降 9 个BP。房贷平均放款周期为 38 天，较上月缩短 12 天。 政策：人民银行、银保监会表示保障性租赁住房有关贷款不纳入房地产贷款集中度管理，全国性商品房预售资金监管意见出台；全国多地出台了降低首付比例、提供购房补贴等楼市促销政策，地方保障性租赁住房建设有所加快。 重 点 房 企 ： 2 月 份百 强 房 企销 售 操 盘金 额 同 比下 降47.2%；金科股份发行 15 亿元公司债，发行利率 8%；多家房企对外新增提供担保，且担保余额占净资产比例偏高。 债券发行与到期：2 月份房地产行业共发行债券 331.97 亿元，通过债市净融资-133.41亿元。2020年 9月至 2022年 2月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约 3145.10 亿元。 信用事件与利差：2 月份有 7 只债券触发交叉违约、1 只债券展期。有 4 家主体和 30 只债券的信用级别被下调。兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）环比下降 5.38BP，AA+、AA级的信用利差向 AAA 级靠拢。 总结与展望：近期商品房销售减少影响了房企回款进度，一些房企资金链承受了很大压力。尽管近期房地产政策一直在放宽，但当前房价上涨已经停滞，市场对未来房价的预期已经扭转，购房者有观望情绪，相关政策的效果可能有限。因此对于部分存量项目积压、负债较高的房企来说，未来销售回款可能仍面临需求端的压力。尤其是一些区位分布不太好的房地产项目去化难度较大，甚至面临亏损的情况。销售回款对现金流支撑有限的情况下，如果房企又面临债务的集中到期，就仍可能会出现资金链断裂的情况。 相关研究报告： 1.《2022 年 1 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交面积下降，房企债市融资持续净流出》，2021.2.16 2.《2021 年 12 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：个人住房贷款发放加快，9 家主体信用级别下调》，2021.01.12 3.《2021 年 11 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销量环比上升，房企债市净融资仍为负》，2021.12.08 商品房成交面积下降，4 家主体信用级别下调 ——2022 年 2 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China March 9th, 2022 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 28.75% year-on-year in January and February, which was still significantly lower than in the same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has increased by 0.03% month-on-month, which turned from down to up. In terms of real estate loans, the average interest rate of first-home loans in “103 cities” was 5.47% in February, and the average interest rate of second-home loans was 5.75%, both down 9BP from the previous month. The average lending cycle in “103 cities” is 38 days, 12 days shorter than the previous month. In terms of policies, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that the loans related to affordable rental housing are not included in the management of the concentration of real estate loans, and national commercialized buildings pre-sale funds supervision rules were issued. Many places have introduced property market promotion policies such as reducing the down payment ratio and providing housing subsidies, and the construction of local affordable rental housing has accelerated. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in February has decreased by 47.2% year-on-year. Jinke Property Group issued 1.5 billion corporate bonds with an interest rate of 8%. A number of real estate companies have provided new guarantees, and the balan