美股-金融业-美国支付业：千禧一代买Visa，其它人买万事达卡

Please refer to page 28 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. 21 January 2020 United States EQUITIES V US Outperform Price (at CLOSE#, 15 Jan 2020) US$196.05 Valuation US$ 250.00 - P/E 12-month target US$ 250.00 12-month TSR % +28.1 Market cap US$m 422,488 30-day avg turnover US$m 1,232.5 Number shares on issue m 2,155 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Sep 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenue m 22,977 25,601 28,552 31,911 EBITDA m 16,027 18,116 20,485 22,979 Reported profit m 12,080 14,109 16,000 18,040 Adjusted profit m 12,367 14,109 16,000 18,040 Gross cashflow m 13,023 14,817 16,728 18,788 EPS adj US$ 5.44 6.36 7.40 8.55 EPS adj growth % 18.2 16.9 16.3 15.5 PER adj x 36.0 30.8 26.5 22.9 Total DPS US$ 1.00 1.20 1.20 1.20 Total div yield % 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 ROE % 36.0 41.3 46.0 46.5 EV/EBITDA x 27.8 24.0 20.7 18.0 Net debt/equity % 9.9 9.6 -1.4 -18.5 P/BV x 12.7 12.8 11.7 9.8 MA US Outperform Price (at CLOSE#, 15 Jan 2020) US$310.64 Valuation US$ 365.00 - P/E 12-month target US$ 365.00 12-month TSR % +18.0 Market cap US$m 313,125 30-day avg turnover US$m 855.1 Number shares on issue m 1,008 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue m 14,950 16,939 19,368 21,945 EBITDA m 8,869 10,190 11,863 13,683 Reported profit m 5,859 7,941 9,043 10,507 Adjusted profit m 6,793 7,883 9,043 10,507 Gross cashflow m 7,252 8,380 9,593 11,107 EPS adj US$ 6.49 7.71 9.07 10.80 EPS adj growth % 41.8 18.8 17.6 19.1 PER adj x 47.9 40.3 34.3 28.8 Total DPS US$ 1.00 1.32 1.60 1.60 Total div yield % 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 ROE % 122.9 151.4 165.9 144.9 EV/EBITDA x 36.5 31.0 26.0 22.0 Net debt/equity % -47.3 22.0 -7.3 -44.1 P/BV x 58.7 63.9 51.4 35.1 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, January 2020 (all figures in USD unless noted) Analysts Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Dan Dolev +1 212 231 2387 dan.dolev@macquarie.com Conan Leon +1 212 231 6417 conan.leon@macquarie.com Charles Yu, CFA +1 212 231 1370 charles.yu@macquarie.com US Payments For Millennials, Buy Visa; For Everything Else, Buy Mastercard Key points  Initiate coverage of V (OP, TP $250) and MA (OP, TP $365). Are millennials a threat or a benefit to Visa & Mastercard’s multi-decade moat?  We find that millennials are reinforcing V & MA’s relevance, increasingly using debit in everyday spend and to fund popular P2P apps.  Real-time push payments, a $10tn opportunity for debit, favors V most. Higher int’l & consulting mix, and long-term margin upside make MA attractive. ‘Generation-D’ Flocking to Debit Reinforces Visa & Mastercard’s Moat By 2025, millennials will become the customer segment with the greatest personal income, surpassing baby boomers as America’s largest living generation. Millennial consumption habits are known to shatter entire industries ranging from newspapers to department stores. Are millennials a threat or a catalyst to Visa and Mastercard’s multi-decade moa