亚太地区-医疗行业-印尼医疗业研究：风暴中追寻健康

Please refer to page 91 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. 15 April 2020 Indonesia EQUITIES Indonesia ranks among the lowest in the region on number of hospital beds per 10,000 people Source: CEIC, Statista, Government of Singapore, Macquarie Research, April 2020 The sector is poised to return to double-digit growth in 2021. EBITDA pressure in 2020 due to COVID-19; still more defensive vs market Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 2020 Initiating on MIKA, SILO, HEAL, PRDA with Outperform; possible entry points Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, April 2020; pricing as of April 14th Inside Pursuit of health and wellness in the storm 2Attractive long-term story 3Healthcare emerging as one of the gov’t’s key priorities 5Not immune to COVID-19 slowdown but more resilient 18Execution progress could drive upside 23Appendices 26Analysts PT Macquarie Sekuritas IndonesiaAri Jahja +62 21 25988366ari.jahja@macquarie.com Indonesia Healthcare Initiation Pursuit of health and wellness in the storm Key points  We see healthy progress on the back of strengthening gov't support and Universal Healthcare (BPJS-K) premium hikes for ~84% of its members this year.  We initiate coverage on MIKA, SILO, HEAL, and PRDA with an Outperform due to a more resilient growth profile vs the market. Top picks: MIKA, HEAL.  2020 will be negatively impacted by COVID-19, but we’ve baked in a 2021 recovery. Our DCF-derived target prices imply 27-56% upside. Attractive long-term story; rising importance amid COVID-19 Indonesia has been an underpenetrated healthcare market, and we believe in its attractive long-term story. It has among the lowest number of hospital beds per 10,000 people, underscoring ample growth opportunities. 224mn or ~83% of the population have been covered by BPJS Kesehatan (“BPJS-K”). The Supreme Court has cancelled plans to raise premiums for ~16% of BPJS-K’s members. Nonetheless, our checks suggest that premium hikes for the remaining ~84% will still proceed. Net net, the gov’t’s stance towards healthcare has become increasingly supportive amid COVID-19, as it represents 19% of their latest Rp405tn fiscal stimulus program. We elaborate on Indonesia’s COVID-19 dynamics in the report. Not immune to COVID-19 slowdown but more resilient We initiate coverage on MIKA, SILO, HEAL, and PRDA, all with an Outperform. In 2019, the sector achieved its highest growth since 2016. COVID-19 may drive an unprecedented deceleration on EBITDA growth this year, however. Our checks suggest healthy volume growth in 2M20, but a decline began in mid-March. Such a decrease is also being seen at hospitals in other countries. Weakness on elective inpatient admissions and outpatient visits will likely continue through 2Q, which could be partially offset by an uptick of COVID-19 patients. Overall, we forecast top-line growth in the 2-8% range in 2020 after factoring in a more conservative ou